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I doubt there will be any new Treaty any time soon - given the requirement for unanimous agreement of member states - by referendum in some countries.  Given the trend towards right wing nationalism and attempts to repatriate powers already ceded to the EU, I also doubt there will be much in the way of further integration in the near future.

Probably the best we can hope for is small wins on the lines of making it easier for citizens to move and work from one country to another, harmonisation of educational standards and professional qualifications etc.  Attempts to impose a common consolidated tax base for corporate taxation will be resisted by smaller low tax countries like Ireland and the Baltics.

Most of the available political energy will be taken up by negotiating Brexit on terms advantageous to the EU, preventing further bank and sovereign defaults in Greece, Italy, Spain etc. and shoring up the Euro from attempts at secession by some countries like Italy.

All in all the EU seems in defensive mode now, trying to retain what it has and losing as little as possible in the face of a political onslaught from the nationalist right. Few, if any, new trade deals will be negotiated - probably not even one with the departing UK. Protectionism and xenophobia will become the new normal.

BTW - thanks a bunch for Trump...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Dec 6th, 2016 at 04:32:40 PM EST
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