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4051 - 1314 already awarded = 2637 remaining elected or pledged delegates. Half of that = 2025.5. To win he would need 2026. To have a double digit lead in pledged delegates he would need 2036. He already has 549, so, for the ten vote margin he needs 1487. 1487/2637 = 56,39%. That is not the Moon. He has won Colorado by 20% and Minnesota with 18% already. Granted that even winning Ohio and Illinois by 15% each on average would be swamped by Clinton's margin in Florida, Florida is the last state where she has the overwhelming advantage with blacks. And Bernie will take California, Oregon and Washington by large margins I expect and likely also Arizona and New Mexico. This time next week, even, Hillzilla will look more like a gorilla from the zoo. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
So, yeah, as I said on FB that I had her winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Illinois, with Bernie winning Missouri.
Instead, she swept all of them, and her win in Ohio was pretty much a blowout.
I don't agree that Bernie will win Oregon, Washington or, especially, California by large margins. He'll probably lose California. He likely won't win Arizona or New Mexico. I'm inclined to give him Oregon and Washington by modest margins, but that's the one region of the country I really don't feel like I have a good feel for.
The math is now pretty much impossible for him. It's dead-girl/live-boy territory, and it has been since Super Tuesday. She's beating him soundly. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
That is one reason I am happy to see Hillary start to focus on Trump. If she gets under his rather thin skin and he goes all out against her BEFORE the convention, we will truly see what she has got. If he has as much potency against her as some claim and others fear, better to find out now rather than later. I would prefer to at least keep the social agenda of the current centrists intact even if we cannot make progress on the economic front. And while I do not expect her to do anything too effective about Wall Street I would be pleasantly surprised to see her order prosecutions of financial fraud in the CEO and CFO ranks of major banks. I would happily believe it as soon as we get some convictions. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
She's unlikely to look terribly weak against him anyway. Both she and Bernie have seen their numbers rise against Trump as the GOP primary has become more and more unhinged. As has Obama, for that matter.
Regardless of who gets elected (even Bernie), I highly doubt you're ever going to see prosecutions for any sort of fraud among CEOs and CFOs of major banks for anything that happened during the mid-2000s. Mostly because I think you'd find the CEOs and CFOs weren't generally the ones committing the fraud.
In my experience -- mostly antitrust work but some big financial fraud work, too -- the perpetrators don't tend to be the officers. They tend to be the mid- to upper-mid-level guys.
Not universally true, but generally.
I do think you'll see those people go to jail more often simply due to the change in attitude at DOJ, which has been shifting toward a focus on jail time for white-collar crime. They've changed from viewing it as a civil-type issue requiring fines to viewing it as a property crime requiring jail sentences.
I think she's proposed some good ideas for additional regulation to build on Dodd-Frank. They'll never pass (at least in whole), in all likelihood, because we won't have enough votes. But good ideas anyway. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Yeah, the high-level guys create the environment and look the other way, almost impossible to catch them on it.
Of course, the high-level guys undoubtedly became high-level guys by doing the same crap and not getting caught. They were just smart enough to not put it in emails and phone recordings. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Not sure why ARG listed CFOs, since CFOs don't really do anything but accounting, SEC stuff (in concert with general counsels) and collecting enormous paychecks. Outside of cases like Enron and insider trading stuff (like the Apple backdating thing years back), they're not going to be heavily involved in the kind of day-to-day fraud we have in mind here.
I'm sure there are examples where they are, depending on the company (finance would be the obvious potential exception). They might well have a more active role in strategy in some places, but not generally. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
And I think you significantly minimize the scope for prosecution that has been ignored under 'regulatory forbearance'. A high profile investigation of the NY Fed with a covert agent or another insider who came forward, were it made clear that whistle-blowers will NOW be protected, not outed, with the skills of Carmine Segarra, could be quite devastating. Hell, a Democratic Senate could convene a special committee to investigate the New York Fed and have public hearings with Carmine as the star witness. It would be electrifying: regulatory capture illustrated - with a beautiful, passionate and articulate figure who was there. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Enron was hardly a trivial example. And even a failed prosecution of a high ranked official, especially after having 'turned' an obviously guilty lower ranked official, would go a long way towards changing the climate of 'fraud is the business model'.
I didn't say it was trivial. I just said it wasn't the norm for what I think you have in mind. And Enron's CFO did go to jail. As did executives in the bid-rigging case involving municipal bonds (remember the Jefferson County bankruptcy?).
My point is that you can turn all the low-ranked officials you want. The CEO-/CFO-types generally aren't the ones involved.
And I think you significantly minimize the scope for prosecution that has been ignored under 'regulatory forbearance'. A high profile investigation of the NY Fed with a covert agent or another insider who came forward, were it made clear that whistle-blowers will NOW be protected, not outed, with the skills of Carmine Segarra, could be quite devastating. Hell, a Democratic Senate could convene a special committee to investigate the New York Fed and have public hearings with Carmine as the star witness. It would be electrifying: regulatory capture illustrated - with a beautiful, passionate and articulate figure who was there.
This sounds great. I'm all for it. And I'm sure all six CSPAN viewers would find it riveting. But this goes to the "What's really scary is what's legal" bit. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Millions of Progressives would find Carmine Segarra's testimony riveting. It would be like John Dean's testimony before the Ervin Committee all over, but with the New York Fed and the whole way our monetary system is run and (not) regulated as the subject being investigated. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Bernie Sanders won overwhelming victories in Washington state and Alaska on Saturday, narrowing Hillary Clinton's still significant lead in the race for delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president. Sanders defeated Clinton in Washington's caucuses 75% to 25% and 79% to 21% in Alaska's, with about 38% and 72% of the states' precincts reporting. "We knew from day one we were going to have a hard time politically in the deep south - that is a conservative part of the country," Sanders told supporters in Madison, Wisconsin. "But we knew things were going to improve as we head west. "We are making significant inroads in Secretary Clinton's lead," he said. "We have a path toward victory."
Bernie Sanders won overwhelming victories in Washington state and Alaska on Saturday, narrowing Hillary Clinton's still significant lead in the race for delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.
Sanders defeated Clinton in Washington's caucuses 75% to 25% and 79% to 21% in Alaska's, with about 38% and 72% of the states' precincts reporting.
"We knew from day one we were going to have a hard time politically in the deep south - that is a conservative part of the country," Sanders told supporters in Madison, Wisconsin. "But we knew things were going to improve as we head west.
"We are making significant inroads in Secretary Clinton's lead," he said. "We have a path toward victory."
Clinton won Arizona 57% to Sanders' 41%. Oregon primaries are May 17. California and New Mexico June 7.
He'll probably take Wisconsin as well.
I suspect Hillzilla will get fairly big wins in New York, Jersey and whatever's left of the Northeast.
California should be fairly close. I'd guess slight edge to Clinton. And I suspect she wins New Mexico.
At that point, I think we're done. She'll win by a few hundred delegates. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
For a black swan to turn white. 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
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