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In 2000 whites were 81% of the electorate when they broke 55 to 42 for Bush.   In 2008 whites were 74% of the electorate and broke 55 to 43 for McCain.  In 2012 whites were 72% of the electorate and broke 59% to 39% for Romney.   Whites are predicted to be ~69% of the electorate this November.  As this trajectory has been followed another trend has been the GOP white vote concentrating in the South and Plains states.  The result is the increase in a a declining percentage has also been a decrease in Electoral Votes.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 11th, 2016 at 12:22:13 PM EST
Ignoring how much middle-class white women hate Trump, let's just do a thought experiment based on the real math, and not the famous Karl Rove math.

Whites broke by nearly 20 points to Romney in 2012. That's a lot, more than McCain and Bush, and probably the reason for this is the same reason as now - the economy really sucked back then especially for poor and lower-middle class whites. It still sucks for them. So the Trump movement is not really a new one, he has just harnessed it (probably by accident) better than the other GOPers in the primary clown car.

But Obama still won, 51-47. Why? Because minority voters voted Democratic 80-18 in 2012. Same as in 2008. And before one says this is because of the African-American vote (though true in the sense that this helped), what people tend to overlook here (but the GOP didn't in their famous analysis of the results of 2012 preaching outreach to Latinos) is that not only was the Latino vote growing quickly in terms of contribution to the electorate, but that they broke to Obama by 44 points. In 2004 Bush had great Latino results, losing them by only 9 points.

This is a big deal, without the Latino vote swinging his way and assuming they voted 70-25 Democratic as today, Kerry beats Bush. The GOP Latino outreach got President Bush re-elected, his white vote only improved slightly (against a shrinking base).

Think Trump can repeat the performance? Neither do I. And not only that, but his anti-immigrant rhetoric will drive them to the polls more than ever, and since Latinos are historically among the least likely of the electorate to actually vote, this is a big deal too and probably throws off quite a lot of the polling models out there today.

The demographics issue is huge. With today's demographics, Gore wins by 8 points in 2000. Kerry beats him by 3 points.

What does that mean today? Well, lets take for a given that African Americans are unlikely to turnout much less for the Democrat, whoever it is, than they did for Obama, given that the dogwhistles have turned into trainwhistles. And Latino turnout will more than offset whatever falloff there might be there. What does this mean for Trump? It means he needs to get 64% of the white vote just to break even. 64%. Remember, the white resentment was already a big factor in 2012, helping Romney get in the upper 50's. But only in the 1972 blowout did a presidential candidate achieve that in the modern era. And Nixon wasn't a misogynist, either, the Democratic advantage of the gender gap didn't exist at the time (in fact, President Ford was +3 with women voters, it was Carter's +8 with the men that got him elected).

Another thing about the demographics is in the absolute numbers. 2012 was the first election where the raw number of Wihte voters actually declined . This is another truth underlining the white resentment vote we are hearing : these are aging people, this is probably their last hurrah. All of the demographic (and therefore market ) growth is among non-whites, especially Latinos.

And you can say all you like that everyone hates Hillary, and I definitely have family members who hate her, but anyone who says Trump can actually win this thing needs to explain not only which states he can flip, but how he can get to 64% of the white vote with all the misogyny we keep hearing out of his mouth. Sanders probably would do better, I think so anyway, though he wouldn't lock in the minority vote as well as Clinton, the primaries sort of underline that (maybe he can change that in California with the Latino vote, we'll see). But Trump is just up against a demographic wave that seems insurmountable.

And all of this ignores the fundraising disadvantage Trump has, not just organizationally, but also in terms of corporate support. Which serious brand wants to be associated with someone who is attacking the only part of the domestic market which presents a growth opportunity for them? At best, Trump can hope Corporate America will sit this one out, and personally I think quite a lot of them will rally to Clinton (validating some of Sander's critiques).

For me, it's pretty much impossible. Not totally out of the question, but damn near impossible.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 06:56:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All true, and you make what you want of current polls, but some of them are damn close in key swing states at the moment:

Quinnipiac
FLORIDA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 44 - Trump 42
OHIO: Clinton 39 - Trump 43; Sanders 43 - Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 - Trump 42; Sanders 47 - Trump 41

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 08:13:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People, especially Dem constituencies, are not tuned in yet. Plus Trump is getting the bump from his "coronation," Clinton or Sanders hasn't had that fortune yet. There'll be more bumps - both McCain and Romney were also ahead of Obama, in a crappy econmy, along the election cycle.

If this is the best Trump has (and it probably is) he is in trouble.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 09:00:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My concern here is voter suppression.  That's the wildcard that could skew everything.  The GOP knows it can't win non-whites, so it has been working at at the state level to reinstate Jim Crow.
by rifek on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 06:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the only defence against that is a Supreme Court with integrity.
Eh? ... Oh.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri May 13th, 2016 at 04:02:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a big deal, without the Latino vote swinging his way and assuming they voted 70-25 Democratic as today, Kerry beats Bush. The GOP Latino outreach got President Bush re-elected, his white vote only improved slightly (against a shrinking base).

Think Trump can repeat the performance? Neither do I. And not only that, but his anti-immigrant rhetoric will drive them to the polls more than ever, and since Latinos are historically among the least likely of the electorate to actually vote, this is a big deal too and probably throws off quite a lot of the polling models out there today.

Ironically Dubya was the smart one, electorally.  He tried to pass immigration reform and successfully reached out to Latinos.  He knew the GOP couldn't survive long-term without doing so.

Then the base kindly told him to go fuck himself, and all his gains were erased.  They haven't really gotten close since.  Even in 2012 -- not a great climate for a president running for re-election -- they lost soundly.

Thinking about the Latino vote this year, I've also been thinking about Prop 187 out in California 20 years ago -- the immigrant-bashing ballot initiative that the CA GOP got behind.

It passed but was thrown out by the court, as I recall.  And it was a classic "won the battle, lost the war" kind of thing.  It led to a surge in Latino participation, and ever since the CA GOP has basically been dead.

I doubt very much the Dems can take AZ, TX, GA, etc, in a similar manner yet.  But certainly the national GOP is setting itself up for much the same fate, long-term, as the CA GOP.  And, worse, instead of moderating their position or at least trying to tone it down, they've nominated a cartoonishly anti-immigrant candidate.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 08:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Latino communities can shake off what I expect to see in the days leading up to the general election, namely every Joe Arse-hole-o redneck sheriff sending deputies out for a barrage of "papers please" stops, they can be the king makers.  I know they want to.  The GOP's nominating Trump is basically redoubling in no trump with no face cards.  On top of that, Pope Francis is giving them permission to be more flexible on social issues.
by rifek on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 06:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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