Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
HL Mencken has the best quote on Trump;-

"No one in this world, so far as I know -- and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me -- has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."

Trump is just a very good showman, mostly schooled by his involvement with professional televised wresting and NASCAR where he understands that the most outrageous behaviour commands the media. He has largely won by making the media, and therefore the voter base, watch him. He is the car crash, the OJ Simpson chase scene, the news media cannot switch from and the public cannot stop talking about.

But there's no consistency. Yes, he's a racist, a misogynist and has found a ready audience for the most exaggerated spoutings of this.

the question remains whether this pattern works beyond the Primary. He can try to be more nuanced, but that's not his schtick and he'd be rubbish at it.

So, while he might win 90 - 95% of the national republican vote, his appeal is largely confined to the already committed and it remains to be seen whether this voting block is, by itself, big enough to win a majority of national votes. tbh, I think that, whatever Rasmussen might say, mid 40s is hopefully his ceiling.

Or at least that's what I'm hoping cos some early polling suggests he can beat Clinton

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 11th, 2016 at 06:43:21 AM EST
All my political instincts tell me that he is going to blow up come September/October, but then I don't live in the USA and all the establishmentarian and much of the progressive commentary over there has been woefully wrong too date.   I don't always agree with Booman but I am with him on this:  Trump is an absolute disaster for Republican and conservative politics in the USA.  But it will take some time before this becomes clear.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed May 11th, 2016 at 07:04:32 AM EST
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