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Ok, I needed to find some answer.

First, the presidential winner in the electoral college tends to also have won the popular vote.

So a really crude calculation based on house and presidential elections 2008-2014 with house results (in million voters) for each party being plotted to turnout and a linear equation forced from those numbers, and presidential results (in million voters) noted to be on average 9% more then house results in years containing both, gives that for R to trump D participation in the presidential election needs to be lower then 48%.

So is that possible? Lowest participation rate in a recent election was in 1996 when the participation rate was:

Voter turnout in the United States presidential elections

49.0%

So yeah, it is possible. Still think Clinton will win though.

by fjallstrom on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 05:46:30 AM EST
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