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Possibly Trump's only real achievement to date has been to drive a high turnout in the Republican primaries. He claims to have brought "millions" of new voters into the electoral process, although it is unclear to me (no data!) whether these "new" voters are simply new to the Primary elections, and how many have never voted in the general election.

However even allowing that several hundred thousand are new voters who haven't previously voted in General Elections, how many of these are in swing states? And are they offset by Republican and Independent voters turned off by Trump who wont vote for Trump, if at all?

Which ever way you cut it, it seems that 2016 is unlikely to be a low turnout year, unless millions of disillusioned Sanders and Republican voters stay at home.  But then voter suppression tactics have been rampant, so we will have to await better data.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 07:54:33 AM EST
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