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Trumps really high negatives should prevent him from expanding his voters. Otoh, Clinton has really high negatives too.

What if their negatives drives turnout down and the election more resembles 2010 or 2014 then 2008 or 2012? Would Clinton still win?

by fjallstrom on Wed May 11th, 2016 at 09:33:14 AM EST
Ok, I needed to find some answer.

First, the presidential winner in the electoral college tends to also have won the popular vote.

So a really crude calculation based on house and presidential elections 2008-2014 with house results (in million voters) for each party being plotted to turnout and a linear equation forced from those numbers, and presidential results (in million voters) noted to be on average 9% more then house results in years containing both, gives that for R to trump D participation in the presidential election needs to be lower then 48%.

So is that possible? Lowest participation rate in a recent election was in 1996 when the participation rate was:

Voter turnout in the United States presidential elections


So yeah, it is possible. Still think Clinton will win though.

by fjallstrom on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 05:46:30 AM EST
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Possibly Trump's only real achievement to date has been to drive a high turnout in the Republican primaries. He claims to have brought "millions" of new voters into the electoral process, although it is unclear to me (no data!) whether these "new" voters are simply new to the Primary elections, and how many have never voted in the general election.

However even allowing that several hundred thousand are new voters who haven't previously voted in General Elections, how many of these are in swing states? And are they offset by Republican and Independent voters turned off by Trump who wont vote for Trump, if at all?

Which ever way you cut it, it seems that 2016 is unlikely to be a low turnout year, unless millions of disillusioned Sanders and Republican voters stay at home.  But then voter suppression tactics have been rampant, so we will have to await better data.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 07:54:33 AM EST
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by das monde on Fri May 13th, 2016 at 04:25:19 AM EST
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