Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
This is a big deal, without the Latino vote swinging his way and assuming they voted 70-25 Democratic as today, Kerry beats Bush. The GOP Latino outreach got President Bush re-elected, his white vote only improved slightly (against a shrinking base).

Think Trump can repeat the performance? Neither do I. And not only that, but his anti-immigrant rhetoric will drive them to the polls more than ever, and since Latinos are historically among the least likely of the electorate to actually vote, this is a big deal too and probably throws off quite a lot of the polling models out there today.

Ironically Dubya was the smart one, electorally.  He tried to pass immigration reform and successfully reached out to Latinos.  He knew the GOP couldn't survive long-term without doing so.

Then the base kindly told him to go fuck himself, and all his gains were erased.  They haven't really gotten close since.  Even in 2012 -- not a great climate for a president running for re-election -- they lost soundly.

Thinking about the Latino vote this year, I've also been thinking about Prop 187 out in California 20 years ago -- the immigrant-bashing ballot initiative that the CA GOP got behind.

It passed but was thrown out by the court, as I recall.  And it was a classic "won the battle, lost the war" kind of thing.  It led to a surge in Latino participation, and ever since the CA GOP has basically been dead.

I doubt very much the Dems can take AZ, TX, GA, etc, in a similar manner yet.  But certainly the national GOP is setting itself up for much the same fate, long-term, as the CA GOP.  And, worse, instead of moderating their position or at least trying to tone it down, they've nominated a cartoonishly anti-immigrant candidate.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu May 12th, 2016 at 08:23:04 AM EST
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