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Can he win?  Yes.

Is it likely?  No.

It's true that the vast majority of people didn't think he'd get this far.  But I'd note is that people thought that in spite of the fact that the polling, outside of a week or two last year when Carson pulled ahead, pretty much said the entire time that Trump was going to win the nomination.

Essentially, we all thought that either (1) Trump would say something so amazingly stupid that it'd kill him or (2) the Republican voters would eventually look around in the fall and say, "Alright, the Trump thing was fun, but we need to pick an electable one, so we'll take (Kasich/Little Marco/Jeb!/whomever)."

By December, when you usually start to see voters break for candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, it should've been pretty clear that Trump was the favorite -- and doubly so once we got past Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

The problem for Trump is this:

He's comically unpopular with the very groups the GOP desperately needs to make gains with -- Latinos and suburban women, in particular.

You can't lose Latinos 90-10 and expect to win states like Nevada and Florida.  In fact, you run the -- not great but still real -- risk of putting states like Arizona and Georgia on the board by doing so.  And if we're even talking about those two states in the next few months, Trump can kiss North Carolina and Colorado goodbye.

You can't run around calling women "dogs" and shrieking about your female opponent playing the "woman card" and expect to win the suburbs and exurbs of Philly, DC, Columbus, etc -- where contests in the Upper South and Rust Belt are decided.

To put The Math(TM) into perspective here, think about it this way:

Give him Florida, Ohio and Virginia -- the only Obama states decided by 5 points or less four years ago, I believe.  Leave the rest as-is from 2012.  Count it up.  He'd still lose.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 11th, 2016 at 10:59:22 AM EST

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