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Does PS lack any will to win the next election or what is going on?

The polling on Wikipedia has Hollande in third place (barely) and the only candidate who would lose to Le Pen if he got to second round. And now they want to gut collective bargaining and ram it through with presidential decree?!

Speaking of the next election, is the discussion on the left to hold a left primary gaining any steam?

by fjallstrom on Mon May 30th, 2016 at 01:42:35 PM EST
The PES is on a suicide mission across Europe.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 30th, 2016 at 01:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And in this case it seems to be trying to divide workers by targeting the most vulnerable - those not in a position to negotiate even minimal conditions for themselves and who are thus reliant on "inversion des norms" to set a floor.  Is it because they have been totally captured by neo-liberal ideology, have come to represent only the oldest and most secure sectors of the workforce who won't be effected so much by this, or have simply sold out?  Surely they cannot believe this is a winning electoral strategy?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 30th, 2016 at 02:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess is that the French Socialist Party, at least, is doomed by the level and the type of education its leaders received. Hollande attended the elite schools of France and was immediately on a path to government service. Unfortunately, he appears to have absorbed a French version of a Neo-Classical Economics along the way and never had the opportunity to consider the possibilities that such a training excluded - pretty much the same problem most US politicians have. But, because he did study at the elite institutions and did well, he resists considering the possibility that he was mis-educated in this area.

The result is that he cannot understand the economic problems France is facing due to being in the Euro-zone and having the policy of the ECB largely dictated by Germany. This is doubly unfortunate, as France is the one country that could force Germany to change course. And, unfortuantely, his views on economics are widely shared amongst French elites.

So he is just doing what he thinks is right and bravely soldiering on despite the plummeting popularity of his government - marching himself, his party and his country off a cliff and into disaster. It has the elements of classical tragedy.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon May 30th, 2016 at 09:25:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What France needs, and quickly, is an alternative to its current socialist - in name only- party. Even if the party gets new leadership immediately it may be too damaged from Holande to win another election any time soon.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon May 30th, 2016 at 09:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and this is perhaps for historical reasons, but also in my view due to errors on the part of the leader of the left alternative, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, during the 2012, the alternative to the PS is the National Front.

In terms of voter sentiment, the National Front is increasingly the party of the working class and of the unemployed.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 06:55:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
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also in my view due to errors on the part of the leader of the left alternative, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, during the 2012

Could you elaborate what those mistakes was?

by fjallstrom on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 09:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mélenchon went out of his way, in 2012, to demonise Marine Le Pen and the Front National. I think the calculation was that doing so would mobilise his voter base.

The problem is that the target audience for the Front de Gauche is largely the same as the Front National, in much the same way that Bernie Sanders appeals to many of the same votes that Donald Trump appeals to.

He was polling well, in the high to mid- teens, and then came the barrage of attacks on Marine Le Pen, which had the unfortunate effect of insulting a good number of his own potential voters.

We see similar dynamics elsewhere.

He finished at 11%.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 11:04:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that Sanders or Clinton shouldn't attack Trump if they want to appeal to at least part of his voting base???

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 03:00:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or that Clinton shouldn't attack Sanders for the same reason.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 03:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this depends on the nature of the attack. And you need to know who are your potential supporters and what will offend them.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 03:41:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
care just needs to be taken to do so in a way which doesn't insult certain sections of the population.

Mélenchon was actively trying to beat Marine Le Pen into fourth place, he wanted to beat her, not win enough votes to make it to the second round. And, he attacked her, for nativism and for not being credible on jobs and on the economic front. He was really going after her, personally, at the end.

And I think if a voter has already given thought and consideration to supporting a candidate, only to hear how ridiculous that candidate is from another candidate who is also aiming to get your vote, you are not necessarily doing yourself any favors.

But Trump is a completely different beast from the National Front. A bald-faced demogogue, and proud of it and his ability to connect with the most nativist portions of the electorate. This case is far harder to make for Marine Le Pen, whose growing support is not coming from the "dead-end" demographic as in the US, but rather, the youth vote, where she is doing really very well.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Wed Jun 1st, 2016 at 04:31:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Part of Trump's shtick is to be abusive and insulting towards anyone he doesn't like at a given point in time. This is part of his appeal to his supporters, but also makes him fair game for being made fun of in return. Not being taken seriously is probably what gets under his skin the most.

However those attacking or satirising him should take care to drive a wedge between him and his supporters.  Appearing to attack his supporters as well as him is the worst thing you can do if you hope to demobilise his base. It will only consolidate them behind him.

His supporters are probably especially sensitive to being written off as dead end, low intelligence, poorly educated, losers.  Paying them exaggerated (but not patronising) respect whilst highlighting how he disrespects them is probably the most effective line of attack.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jun 1st, 2016 at 07:20:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I must admit I don't get your argument. When the Le Pens took away working-class voters from the PCF, that included quite strong attacks on the PCF and its leaders, didn't it? IMHO if Mélenchon made a mistake, it wasn't attacking FN and Marine Le Pen itself, but maybe the delivery. Maybe he should have attacked the two main parties more at the same time. Maybe it's as some have argued on ET, that he was to too willing to prepare for a coalition with the PS. But maybe he just didn't found effective enough arguments to show why FN is a fraud on the working class.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 3rd, 2016 at 01:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's an interesting point, we see similar dynamics in the UK

Working class people used to be a reliable vote for Labour in the 70s who became the 80s thatcherite working classes. Now in the 21st century they are moving on to ukip. Yet Labour still believe that these people should be voting for them and barrack ukip in ways that continue to alienate the very electorate they seek to woo.

The problem for Labour is that they never understood why these people deserted them in the first place and continues to fail to see why ukip can be so attractive to a group of people who, on the face of it, seem to have so little to gain from voting for the right.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 05:00:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
though of course I probably misread or am misremembering.

Takes a generation to die off before things change. Or, theoretically, in a democracy, vote the generation out.

Theoretically.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 07:36:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Kuhn was referring specifically to the structure of scientific revolutions and resisted applying his theory to society as a whole. That hasn't stopped the wholesale adoption of his concepts of paradigm shift, normal science, and the sociological determinants of what is commonly thought to be conceivable, or common sense.

However there is no a priory reason why a generational change should lead to a paradigm shift - indeed the younger generation may cling to the old certainties more vehemently than those who came before. It takes the objective failure of a given set of ideas to achieve their desired goals for a mass re-examination to begin...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 03:21:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For Kuhn the change was more something he observed than something he theorized. And it wasn't specifically generational.  I believe he quoted Neils Bohr' mordant quip that change in physics occurred one death at a time. But it takes many such deaths to make a paradigm shift, but, depending on the nature of the evidence, it can occur more swiftly or not at all. But I read the book around 50 years ago - in the year it was published, I think.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 03:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, of course. They need a Sanders/Corbyn figure to emerge and campaign on an anti-austerity economic view. But you're right, that's currently impossible.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 07:44:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There was an announcement that there would be a primary on the left in the beginning of December.

François Hollande later announced (via a nationally televised interview with a carefully selected group of journalists and citizens) that he would announce his intentions...in December.

So no, there are no credible plans for a primary on the left in France, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon has, logically, announced his intention to run for the Presidency in 2017 irregardless.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 07:39:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I guess that also means Hollande is running, because it leaves little time for PS to choose anyone else.

Looking at the Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017 the most likely result looks like LePen and whoever UMP nominates on to the second round, with Holland and Mélenchon fighting it out for third and fourth place.

by fjallstrom on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 09:13:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Arguably, he might be playing coy in order to not play the lame duck, in much the same way as his idol, François Mitterand, did in 1994, waiting until the last minute to decline to run, and in so doing giving his weak governement a little more political force.

It is a cottage industry among pundits here to attempt to ascertain the president's intentions...

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue May 31st, 2016 at 11:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
fjallstrom:
Does PS lack any will to win the next election or what is going on?
I am on record for having called Hollande the French Zapatero as soon as 2012, mere months into Hollande's term. The course set then was very clear already. Sadly.

We know the French presidential system tends to make the people inside it totally deaf and blind, but this crowd is running it to new heights.

by Bernard on Thu Jun 2nd, 2016 at 04:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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