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The polls are all over the place. They simply don't have a model for doing it properly and so are effectively sticking a wet finger in the air.

Anyone who tells you what's going to happen is guessing. But, given that it's quite likely to be a close vote, I doubt anything will really be settled. the post-referendum politics will be a lot more interesting, but hopefully more civilised, than that which preceded it.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 19th, 2016 at 04:02:20 PM EST
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Nope. The civilised will make a point of civilised and treating their opponents respectfully. The swill-eyed nationalist xenophobic racists won't be the slightest bit concerned. Net effect is to make the civilised unwilling to tackle the loonies robustly and the loonies aren't properly challenged. See "civility" in the US.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 20th, 2016 at 04:58:48 AM EST
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I've been telling progressives for decades that if you think the right wing nut jobs will put down their weapons just because you won't pick one up, you're loony, and you might as well surrender now.  As Stokely Carmichael put it, "For nonviolence to succeed, your opponent must have a conscience."  The Right has none.
by rifek on Tue Jun 21st, 2016 at 02:22:24 PM EST
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...tell you what I've said, as you get all high and fucking mighty here.  But first a question:

What makes you think, in your infinite wisdom, progressives here don't know that?

Hint, hint, rifek:  Just because people pay lip service to bipartisanship in the context of a media environment during the twilight of the Reagan coalition doesn't mean they actually think it's realistic or give a shit.

And I've been trying to tell people like you that for years in re: Obama.  Contra the assertions of his being naive, and the bizarre notion among some on the left that if you just scream loud enough and act like some sort of really sad wannabe-Bolshevik that the filibuster will disappear and ponies will rain from the sky, nobody in the trenches is, or ever was, under any illusions.

In fact, it's the folks who pimp themselves as the populist saviors and refuse to listen to the rest of us -- when we observe that, really, Trump's rise (and the GOP's rise since the late-'60s) is just a function of racism and bigotry rather than this horseshit about trade and immigration-as-it-relates-to-wages -- who are actually naive.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jun 21st, 2016 at 10:05:03 PM EST
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Don't need your hints, Drew,  or your snark, or any other Dkos rubbish.  I know what I've been watching in the Democratic Party for over three decades: a steady sell-out by the supposed grown-ups running the show.   And FYI, I'm a former elected Democrat in a Republican county and have been a precinct officer for most of the last 30 years, so contrary to popular opinion, I have some kind of clue.
by rifek on Wed Jun 22nd, 2016 at 03:58:01 PM EST
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Drew, you are probably right about the cynical lip service given to bipartisanship - especially with Obama. It both gave him an excuse to delay and avoid doing things he really didn't want to do and an opportunity to show how partisan the Republicans were. But the truth is that we will never know what might have been had a thorough effort been given to pushing through measures where there was only one vote lacking in the Senate - because there was only delay, (partly under the cover of seeking bipartisan agreement), until after Kennedy died. Then there was no danger of anything progressive happening.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 22nd, 2016 at 04:41:50 PM EST
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"The civilised will make a point of civilised and treating their opponents respectfully. The swill-eyed nationalist xenophobic racists won't be the slightest bit concerned."

That may be the case, guys, but let's try and keep things as civilised as possible here. It is possible to make either case without insulting those taking the other view.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jun 23rd, 2016 at 01:14:58 AM EST
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I think Warsi's defection is possibly a bellwether. She could, I suppose, be having a crisis of conscience, but it seems at least as likely that she's decided that Boris isn't going to have ministerial positions to hand out post-referendum.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 20th, 2016 at 05:37:32 AM EST
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