Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I've been told NI is an economic basket case, kept running by UK charity.  I don't see why either the Republic of Ireland or a newly independent Scotland, with all the problems of a new nation, would want to federate with NI.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To avoid a festering abscess at their doorstep? (or at least try to contain it)
by Bernard on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the reality of Unionist thuggery, I'd say having NI causing problems on the other side of a locked door is better than having it causing problems on the inside.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be honest this is my reason for not wanting reunification - that and the fact that clearly there would be large numbers of people in NI not happy with the situation. I could see immediate violence again... My thinking for a federation is purely altruistic: keeping a lid of the problems in NI. I doubt that Scotland or the RoI would be keen to be honest...
by piobar on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:18:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There has never been a Scottish/Irish relationship, other than through the Northern Irish Scottish protestant connection and some vague feeling of a common Celtic heritage. There is certainly some fellow feeling, especially a common distaste for the Sassenach (English), but this has never translated into any sense of unity.  In addition a newly Independent Scotland will have plenty of problems of its own.

While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the €11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster.  So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.

However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in.  Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible.  There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.

However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south.  There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.

However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed.  No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:54:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose everyone but Sinn Fein is now trying to figure out how to say they don't want a united Ireland without saying they don't want a united Ireland.
by rifek on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Top Diaries

What happens now?

by IdiotSavant - Jan 15

Too little, too late

by Frank Schnittger - Jan 12

A TITANIC success

by Frank Schnittger - Jan 7

Perils of a No Deal BrExit

by Oui - Jan 7

Review of 2018

by Frank Schnittger - Dec 26

Star Over Bethlehem

by Oui - Dec 25
1 comment

Occasional Series