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While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the 11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster. So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.
However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in. Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible. There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.
However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south. There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.
However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed. No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...
Index of Frank's Diaries
by IdiotSavant - Jan 15 5 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 12 72 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 7 36 comments
by Oui - Jan 7 78 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 26 43 comments
by Oui - Dec 28 21 comments
by Oui - Dec 25 1 comment
by Oui - Dec 26 17 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jan 155 comments
by Oui - Jan 153 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 1272 comments
by Oui - Jan 9
by Oui - Jan 81 comment
by Oui - Jan 84 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jan 736 comments
by Oui - Jan 778 comments
by Oui - Jan 56 comments
by Oui - Jan 3
by Oui - Jan 36 comments
by Oui - Jan 21 comment
by Oui - Dec 313 comments
by Oui - Dec 2821 comments
by Oui - Dec 278 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 2643 comments
by Oui - Dec 2617 comments
by Oui - Dec 25
by Oui - Dec 251 comment