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While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the 11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster. So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.
However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in. Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible. There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.
However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south. There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.
However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed. No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...
Index of Frank's Diaries
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by Frank Schnittger - May 24 19 comments
by gmoke - Jun 3 2 comments
by Oui - Jun 3 13 comments
by IdiotSavant - May 29
by Oui - Jun 16
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by Frank Schnittger - Jun 725 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 524 comments
by Oui - Jun 313 comments
by gmoke - Jun 32 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 295 comments
by IdiotSavant - May 29
by Frank Schnittger - May 2724 comments
by Oui - May 271 comment
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by Frank Schnittger - May 2419 comments
by Oui - May 2339 comments
by Oui - May 2312 comments
by melo - May 239 comments
by ATinNM - May 2210 comments
by gmoke - May 17
by Frank Schnittger - May 1768 comments
by Oui - May 1542 comments