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There has never been a Scottish/Irish relationship, other than through the Northern Irish Scottish protestant connection and some vague feeling of a common Celtic heritage. There is certainly some fellow feeling, especially a common distaste for the Sassenach (English), but this has never translated into any sense of unity.  In addition a newly Independent Scotland will have plenty of problems of its own.

While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the €11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster.  So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.

However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in.  Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible.  There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.

However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south.  There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.

However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed.  No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:54:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose everyone but Sinn Fein is now trying to figure out how to say they don't want a united Ireland without saying they don't want a united Ireland.
by rifek on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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