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While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the 11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster. So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.
However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in. Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible. There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.
However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south. There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.
However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed. No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 17 12 comments
by Oui - Aug 12
by gmoke - Aug 7 16 comments
by Oui - Aug 9 6 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 3 53 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 27 83 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jul 20 19 comments
by Cat - Jul 29 2 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 1712 comments
by Oui - Aug 12
by Oui - Aug 116 comments
by Oui - Aug 10
by Oui - Aug 96 comments
by gmoke - Aug 716 comments
by Oui - Aug 3
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 353 comments
by Oui - Jul 3111 comments
by Oui - Jul 311 comment
by Cat - Jul 292 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2783 comments
by Oui - Jul 2610 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2543 comments
by Oui - Jul 232 comments
by Bernard - Jul 2234 comments
by Oui - Jul 226 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2116 comments
by Oui - Jul 2017 comments