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What if the UK just muddles along for months and months--or even years--without getting to an Article 50 declaration? EU ministers have already met together without the UK; how far towards practical Brexit can they go without a declaration, in the interests of their own internal European stability?
by asdf on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 10:17:07 AM EST
The EU has already endorsed the concept of "a two speed Europe" so some countries going ahead on some proposal without unanimity is not a new thing.

In practice, all a non-activation of Article 50 will achieve is to further undermine the UK's negotiating position in Europe.  Why would anyone take the UK seriously when both Government and opposition parties are so divided, and when they are operating in violation of the only popular mandate they have in relation to the EU?

So, for all practical purposes, the UK is already outside of the EU. They can retain access to the single market by not activating Article 50, but they have already lost any political influence they might have had on the future direction of the EU and all those regulations they so love to hate. Even their Commissioner has resigned.

With BoJo and Farage now both out of active politics, their campaign can be seen for the act of vandalism it truly was: Play to the worst fears of the electorate, make all sorts of false promises, and then run away as fast as you can when faced with the actual real consequences of your campaign...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 10:36:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
So, for all practical purposes, the UK is already outside of the EU.
Well, as I mentioned in my diary, since the UK is still a EU member, they still have to send £350m each week to Brussels (OK, minus some EU funding received in return), implement all "bendy bananas" directives from the reviled Eurocrats, and keep allowing free flow of migrating Poles (or French, or Portuguese or...), all things that are routinely denounced in the tabloid press.

Not to mention that "uncertainty is bad for business".

The Brexiters now seem stunned by their unexpected success, but how long will it take for them to turn really, really nasty when they realize that the Tories/UKIP (whomever succeeds Dave, Boris and Nigel) haven't even started to plan to extricate Britain from the EU's evil clutches?

Muddling through can only be a temporary stopgap. Something's got to give eventually, but what?

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 06:42:06 PM EST
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the biggest problem seems to be that the expressed wishes of people who voted leave revolve around the sort of social spending solutions that are impossilbe with conservative neo-liberalism.

This is going to result in a lot of really disappointed people

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 07:57:46 PM EST
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It seems to me that, in such a situation, saying, in effect, "the voters have spoken and there is nothing we can do" is to empower every rich rouge and demagogue in the polity. Surrendering to manufactured lies that deliberately misled voters is a choice, not a necessity. But a majority may well prefer that choice to the choice of trying to explain properly what happened and what are the real alternatives.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 08:14:47 PM EST
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