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For the bajillionth time, Trump's voters are not economically anxious. We have mountains of polling data on this at this point. Trump voters are quite well to do -- They make significantly more money than Clinton or Sanders voters -- and are not generally centered in parts of the country where economic anxiety issues tend to be the driving forces.
His own voters responses on issue polling make this clear.
They are culturally anxious and largely centered in areas of the country where diversity has been rising.
It's racism and xenophobia. It was always racism and xenophobia. Anyone who tells you it's not racism and xenophobia is either too lazy to read a the polling or too dishonest to let the polling conflict with their narratives about struggling Rust-Belters sticking it to The ManTM over trade.
Trump is actually underperforming both Romney and McCain in those areas as well as the South while overperforming the two in the Southwest and Northeast. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
The racist sentiment has always been there, but it's been bubbling to the surface lately. Racist political speech has encouraged people to channel latent racism into political thought and action.
I don't know about Europe and can't speak to the situation there. Europe and the US are very different. But in the US, it's straight up racism, and too many in the political class are desperate to pretend otherwise because they have made their careers on racist dogwhistling, and Trump has not only stolen their thunder, but is threatening to get them un-invited from the best cocktail parties.
It's a frustration thing, I think. Lots of scared, old white folks seeing a lot of black and brown folks moving into the neighborhoods. Black president. Woman looking to win the presidency. Possible Latino VP. Getting older, and having younger people calling them out for bigoted opinions ("anti-PC" and all that). Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Indeed, 49 percent of likely Republican primary voters I surveyed score in the top quarter of the authoritarian scale--more than twice as many as Democratic voters. Political pollsters have missed this key component of Trump's support because they simply don't include questions about authoritarianism in their polls.
Political pollsters have missed this key component of Trump's support because they simply don't include questions about authoritarianism in their polls.
So when a couple of years ago a visiting Italian MP struck his kid in the middle of Stockholm, he was promptly hauled into court, creating much interest from Swedish and Italian media alike.
Unfortunately, the study of authoritarianism in Sweden appears to be a small field, and I can't find any long time studies.
They are culturally anxious and largely centered in areas of the country where diversity has been rising. This however I find genuinely scary. At least from Europe I am used to a lot of the racist base coming from regions that only get to see foreigners on TV. Once you live next to each other you tend to get used to it. Or rather all the tabloid stories get balanced by the daily experience of not getting robbed by a Turk. Is that US car culture striking again?
Let us assume this trend is persistent at least until the November. What are the implications for the electoral college and for Senate and congressional races?
At a first glance it seems as if Trump is doing slightly better in areas where he is not going to win anyway, and worse in states he absolutely has to win to be competitive.
"Trump voters are quite well to do"
To what extent is this simply a function of the bulk of the Republic base rowing in behind him? Was his voter base also primarily well to do in the early weeks of his insurgency?
Finally, how does this all map onto competitive Senate and Congressional races?
(If you feel a diary coming on to answer those questions, Drew, don't hold back... I'm holding the front page for you!) Index of Frank's Diaries
As of today (July 12) it looks like the Senate will flip back to Democratic Party control. We're 118 days out so it is possible this could change. I note that scum-sucker, conservative Dem, Evan Bayh has decided to jump into the Indiana senate race indicating the Smart Money© is on a Dem take-over.
House? Who knows and no way of telling today. Utterly depends on the Dem candidate for the position. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Trump voters are quite well to do -- They make significantly more money than Clinton or Sanders voters...
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