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I don't know the demographics of Brexit well enough to really pass judgment on the narratives, but as to Trump:

For the bajillionth time, Trump's voters are not economically anxious.  We have mountains of polling data on this at this point.  Trump voters are quite well to do -- They make significantly more money than Clinton or Sanders voters -- and are not generally centered in parts of the country where economic anxiety issues tend to be the driving forces.

His own voters responses on issue polling make this clear.

They are culturally anxious and largely centered in areas of the country where diversity has been rising.

It's racism and xenophobia.  It was always racism and xenophobia.  Anyone who tells you it's not racism and xenophobia is either too lazy to read a the polling or too dishonest to let the polling conflict with their narratives about struggling Rust-Belters sticking it to The ManTM over trade.

Trump is actually underperforming both Romney and McCain in those areas as well as the South while overperforming the two in the Southwest and Northeast.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 08:59:14 PM EST
I'm aware of all that. See this fine example of effluent Trumpism. But I'm still not so sure where it all comes from. Could it just be privileged boomer narcissism combined with nostalgia? (going head to head against millenial narcissism - feel the Bern).

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 10:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gut feelings here, but ...

The racist sentiment has always been there, but it's been bubbling to the surface lately. Racist political speech has encouraged people to channel latent racism into political thought and action.

I don't know about Europe and can't speak to the situation there.  Europe and the US are very different.  But in the US, it's straight up racism, and too many in the political class are desperate to pretend otherwise because they have made their careers on racist dogwhistling, and Trump has not only stolen their thunder, but is threatening to get them un-invited from the best cocktail parties.

by Zwackus on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 11:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't shouting at you, just for the record.  It's the press treatment.

It's a frustration thing, I think.  Lots of scared, old white folks seeing a lot of black and brown folks moving into the neighborhoods.  Black president.  Woman looking to win the presidency.  Possible Latino VP.  Getting older, and having younger people calling them out for bigoted opinions ("anti-PC" and all that).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 12:02:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You're a Trump Supporter And it's not gender, age, income, race or religion. - Politico
Indeed, 49 percent of likely Republican primary voters I surveyed score in the top quarter of the authoritarian scale--more than twice as many as Democratic voters.

Political pollsters have missed this key component of Trump's support because they simply don't include questions about authoritarianism in their polls.



Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Thu Jul 14th, 2016 at 06:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the best inoculations against future authoritarians may well be the increased emphasis on preventing child abuse. So much of what was once considered acceptable, or even manditory, child rearing practices can now get one a visit from the police and social services. If we only had less dysfuncional child protective and foster care programs...

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 17th, 2016 at 01:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a friend who just did several years in social services in the UK.
He had to quit because it was so heartbreaking he saw a nervous breakdown not far ahead.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 17th, 2016 at 08:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sweden is quite extreme in international measurements of values and I think one part is disdain with which physical punishment of children is viewed. Physcal punishment in schools was abolished in 1958. The right to hit your own child was abolished in 1966 and a outright ban was instituted in 1979. I believe that was an international first, and now we have several generations where hitting kids is seen as abuse, no matter the relation between adult and child.

So when a couple of years ago a visiting Italian MP struck his kid in the middle of Stockholm, he was promptly hauled into court, creating much interest from Swedish and Italian media alike.

by fjallstrom on Sun Jul 17th, 2016 at 09:08:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any polling/other evidence that the portion of those with 'authoritarian attitudes' has decreased as many whould expect?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 18th, 2016 at 12:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good question.

Unfortunately, the study of authoritarianism in Sweden appears to be a small field, and I can't find any long time studies.

by fjallstrom on Tue Jul 19th, 2016 at 07:32:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Retiring Yuppies are likely a major Trump constituency.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 12:55:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly true. However how far up the income distribution do you have to be in order to have seen real improvements in the last 15 years, two decades? 20%? 30%? And how low do you have to be to see the impacts coming closer?
And if you are white and male as nearly all Trump voters are there is no narrative for how things could conceivably get better in our "liberal" elites bag of tricks. For anyone else there is at least diversity as a clear offer, even if it is often honoured more in the breach than in fact. But for people who already had all those opportunities TM it's compete or die, no excuses. So I wouldn't say the narrative that this is about globalisation's losers is entirely nonsense, just vastly oversold.

They are culturally anxious and largely centered in areas of the country where diversity has been rising.
This however I find genuinely scary. At least from Europe I am used to a lot of the racist base coming from regions that only get to see foreigners on TV. Once you live next to each other you tend to get used to it. Or rather all the tabloid stories get balanced by the daily experience of not getting robbed by a Turk.
Is that US car culture striking again?

by generic on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 08:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think those in the top 15% of annual incomes have benefited. The next decile is teetering and everyone below the 75th has to feel like they have lost ground. There are a lot of people, like myself, who have tasted six figure incomes, but not to the end of their careers. Economically, they/we have fallen from grace. I am glad to have what I have, but many are bitter about lost opportunities and are misdirected as to how this happened and who is to blame. I had to wait until retirement to have the time to figure out something about what has happened, but it wasn't easy.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 03:43:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Trump is actually underperforming both Romney and McCain in those areas as well as the South while overperforming the two in the Southwest and Northeast"

Let us assume this trend is persistent at least until the November.  What are the implications for the electoral college and for Senate and congressional races?

At a first glance it seems as if Trump is doing slightly better in areas where he is not going to win anyway, and worse in states he absolutely has to win to be competitive.

"Trump voters are quite well to do"

To what extent is this simply a function of the bulk of the Republic base rowing in behind him?  Was his voter base also primarily well to do in the early weeks of his insurgency?

Finally, how does this all map onto competitive Senate and Congressional races?

(If you feel a diary coming on to answer those questions, Drew, don't hold back... I'm holding the front page for you!)

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 01:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
National election polls are a mess right now and won't improve until mid-August after both conventions and the immediate affects of the conventions.

As of today (July 12) it looks like the Senate will flip back to Democratic Party control.  We're 118 days out so it is possible this could change.  I note that scum-sucker, conservative Dem, Evan Bayh has decided to jump into the Indiana senate race indicating the Smart Money© is on a Dem take-over.

House?  Who knows and no way of telling today.  Utterly depends on the Dem candidate for the position.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 03:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trump voters are quite well to do -- They make significantly more money than Clinton or Sanders voters...
If that be the case then they are not numerous enough to win an election by themselves unless there is a massively disproportionately turn-out of Trumps supporters.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 05:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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