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I don't have month-by-month data in front of me, but the massive population movements started several months before Merkel's open-borders moment. Why did Syrians in particular decide last year, in huge numbers, to abandon (or monetize) everything they had and take a gamble on Europe? Because their situation was desperately bad and deteriorating, with no prospect of improvement : ever-worsening multi-cornered civil war, and strategic stalemate.
Sure, the movement was no doubt prolonged by the open-borders moment. But to portray it as caused by Merkel's pronouncements is, as politely as possible, non-truthful.

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As to the effects on Brexit, one can sure argue that Merkel's policies were not that significant

That wasn't my argument.  

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by eurogreen on Sun Jul 17th, 2016 at 05:30:09 PM EST
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