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Once Article 50 is triggered

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I note that the assumed and approved EU position has become win-lose rather than win-win, which is rather depressingly stupid.

I find the idea of Brexit stupid and depressing and and symptom of the EU's failures. Meanwhile it's become an occasion for EU nationalism and "kick the Brits!"

How I hate nationalism.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:19:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Article 50 is not triggered, there is no Brexit, and no need for us to have this discussion.  The whole episode will become little more than an unpleasantness within one member state, to be sorted out within that member state, by whatever means they see fit, in accordance with their constitution. Moreover, a member state whose influence within the EU has nearly always been retrogressive and whose influence may now, thankfully, either be changed, or at least much reduced...

That isn't schadenfreude or EU nationalism, it simply hoping for a better future for all the people of the EU, or at least those who wish to remain part of it.  As for the UK, I wish them all the best too.  I just think they have made a serious mistake...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:36:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love people's certainty on these matters.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm being factual. Referenda are advisory in the UK. They do not have the force of law.  A government can ignore the result - although it would probably be slaughtered at the next election.

Theresa May will probably let the process grind on to an unsatisfactory conclusion and then call an election or referendum on the outcome of the negotiations - all the while praising the efforts of her negotiators and blaming EU intransigence.  Yes, this is speculation.  YMMV.  Predicting war is easy, but doesn't make it any less likely.  I appreciate your criticisms, but perhaps you would like, some day, to give a positive view on something.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit without article 50 is also possible.

So is some sort of face-saving operation for the UK (which would, if it was anti-immigrant, fit nicely into the agenda of a lot of EU leaders).

A positive view? Maybe after we have a nice little war people will be moderately sensible for a generation or two. How's that?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 12:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So your idea for making a positive contribution here is to praise the moderating effects of war?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 01:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Once Article 50 is triggered, any referendum will have to be between a bad deal and no deal (i.e., hard Brexit), not between a bad Brexit deal and the EU status quo.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was going to respond to your suggestion that this whole episode will led to a new European war, but that part of your comment seems to have disappeared.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:40:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's in the previous comment. And this is just part of the general drift in that direction.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:44:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Lose-lose' is the most likely outcome. It would help if more realized that fact.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 02:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not like the EU could do much to avoid lose-lose once the UK chose Brexit.

So far, the EU has won a bit. The foul little agreement Cameron extracted from the European Council in February is null and void. And good riddance to that.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Theresa May does not trigger Article 50 she may well have both a Tory party revolt and an English popular revolt in her hands. Presumably the Tory party conference in the Autumn will clear things up. There should be no obstacle to triggering Article 50 between October and December.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the assumed and approved EU position has become win-lose

How could it be otherwise? There is no win-win solution to this, either the UK or the EU will come out defeated to some degree of this process. There is no path  leading simultaneously to a gentle exit and a deepening of the Union.

If the UK never triggers Article 50, then the EU wins. And perhaps the UK loses the least...

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2016 at 07:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK doesn't "lose" by staying in. Certain political forces in the UK do.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2016 at 09:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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