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The EU is not going to do talks about talks. They have made that transparently clear.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:12:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is the EUs current position, yes. And Franks argument is that UK will bow to that because of economic pressure from the current insecurity. But if the UK fears a negotiation resulting in a worse outcome then the current insecurity, then that points towards not triggering article 50 before they have had talks-about-talks and have an understanding of a better outcome then the current insecurity.

If the UK doesn't trigger article 50 any time soon, and also does not take any steps towards cancelling the results of the referendum, we could have a stale-mate. UK insisting on talks-about-talks while blaming Brussels for prolonging the enevitable, and EU refusing talks-about-talks. The question is then which side handles the political pressure better.

by fjallstrom on Thu Aug 4th, 2016 at 01:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UK doesn't trigger Art 50 soon there will be increasing voices within the UK arguing that so much time has passed that the conditions under which the referendum was held do not prevail any longer and so the Parliament is not bound by the referendum result, which was nonbinding in the first place. Then you can expect the Tory party to come under internal pressure and casual violence against EU migrants to increase.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2016 at 07:47:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then you can expect the Tory party to come under internal pressure and casual violence against EU migrants to increase.

That's going to happen anyway unless they're all expelled. And then they'll turn on some other group. (And you think 3M people are going to be expelled without violence?)

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 5th, 2016 at 09:56:48 AM EST
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Which tends to reinforce the largest point I have always made about Brexit: That people and governments, especially in the UK, tend to blame the EU for everything, even things that are within their own control. There is nothing to prevent the UK triggering Article 50 tomorrow and being out within a week following an emergency Council meeting and attaining the same third country status as any other WTO member.

The only reason they don't do this is because they want a more favoured status and relationship with the EU: one the EU is under no legal obligation to concede, even if there are some partial models (but not precedents!) to follow in the case of Norway or Switzerland, which were never part of the EU. Yes, mutual joint interests will probably result in some special status for the UK/EU relationship being agreed, but this is a policy choice being made by the UK Government of behalf of its electorate (and business interests).

It is totally illogical an irrational to blame any of the is on immigrants, but of course that doesn't mean it won't happen.  And of course those same immigrants are vital to the UK's economy, meaning their departure will contribute to the UK's longer term economic decline. The UK is in danger of entering an ever declining downward cycle here unless this situation is managed pro-actively and well. The damage to the EU will be marginal by comparison.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 6th, 2016 at 09:52:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Theresa May has already said Article 50 will be triggered "early in the new year". She would have difficulty explaining to the UK electorate why this hasn't happened, if it doesn't happen.

Theresa May does not intend to trigger article 50 this year, court told | Politics | The Guardian

In an article for the Sun last week, the newly appointed Davis said the process of consulting "should be completed to allow triggering of article 50 before or by the start of next year". There have been reports that civil servants were working on a deadline of Christmas this year while Theresa May has indicated that she wants to secure the support of the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, before beginning the exit process.

Presumably Nicola Sturgeon would require a new Scottish Independence Referendum, post Brexit, as the price of her agreement. But the argument here isn't really about the economics of Brexit, but about the politics. Any failure to trigger Article 50 - whatever the economic reasons for doing so, would be trumped by the political fall-out. Theresa May's government would be accused of breaking it's pledge to the electorate, the Tory party would split, and a new election could deliver a very different outcome.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Aug 6th, 2016 at 10:05:39 AM EST
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