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If the UK doesn't trigger article 50 any time soon, and also does not take any steps towards cancelling the results of the referendum, we could have a stale-mate. UK insisting on talks-about-talks while blaming Brussels for prolonging the enevitable, and EU refusing talks-about-talks. The question is then which side handles the political pressure better.
Then you can expect the Tory party to come under internal pressure and casual violence against EU migrants to increase.
That's going to happen anyway unless they're all expelled. And then they'll turn on some other group. (And you think 3M people are going to be expelled without violence?)
The only reason they don't do this is because they want a more favoured status and relationship with the EU: one the EU is under no legal obligation to concede, even if there are some partial models (but not precedents!) to follow in the case of Norway or Switzerland, which were never part of the EU. Yes, mutual joint interests will probably result in some special status for the UK/EU relationship being agreed, but this is a policy choice being made by the UK Government of behalf of its electorate (and business interests).
It is totally illogical an irrational to blame any of the is on immigrants, but of course that doesn't mean it won't happen. And of course those same immigrants are vital to the UK's economy, meaning their departure will contribute to the UK's longer term economic decline. The UK is in danger of entering an ever declining downward cycle here unless this situation is managed pro-actively and well. The damage to the EU will be marginal by comparison.
Index of Frank's Diaries
Theresa May does not intend to trigger article 50 this year, court told | Politics | The Guardian
In an article for the Sun last week, the newly appointed Davis said the process of consulting "should be completed to allow triggering of article 50 before or by the start of next year". There have been reports that civil servants were working on a deadline of Christmas this year while Theresa May has indicated that she wants to secure the support of the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, before beginning the exit process.
Presumably Nicola Sturgeon would require a new Scottish Independence Referendum, post Brexit, as the price of her agreement. But the argument here isn't really about the economics of Brexit, but about the politics. Any failure to trigger Article 50 - whatever the economic reasons for doing so, would be trumped by the political fall-out. Theresa May's government would be accused of breaking it's pledge to the electorate, the Tory party would split, and a new election could deliver a very different outcome.
Index of Frank's Diaries
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