Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Hmmm, I have come late to the party, but it's all been said.

ah well.

I think TBG is close to the mark when he argues that the Conservatives have abdicated far too many of the concepts of good governance to be truly capable of piloting this process to a safe port. Even if May tries, she will find herself forced to choose between the good of the country or holding the Tory party together. There are far too many within the leave tendency who believe in the cleansing effects of "creative destruction" who will veto the very compromises necessary to ensure safety. Even then, the choice of rock or hard place may seem luxurious compared to those the UK will face over the next few years.

We would be mad to invoke A50 at all. But if we must, which we do because the very authority of Parliament would be brought into question if we didn't, then I'm sure that, whatever the rules say and the powers that be demand, there will be talks about talks and memoranda of understanding. However, the UK doesn't possess the negotiating appratus to deal with the legal complexities of trade deals in the 21st century. The EU has done all that for us for 40 years and the expertise has withered. So, all those memoranda will fade as well.

So, everything will go to WTO basic. Except, probably, we will swallow TTiP whole because our polticians  will need to have a trade deal of some kind with a major country to prove that we can. And TTiP is practically ready for signature tomorrow. All we need is to be utterly stupid........oh wait.

ps Small war. If Trump is elected, we will have a small war sometime between 20th Jan and 1st Feb, when Russia annexes the Baltic states.

If not, well let's be honest, the ME and Turkey are a little rats nest that won't improve anytime soon. Greece and or Bulgaria may find natiness spilling over.

Plus the financial instability in Italy is a contagion that the EU cannot cope with under current rules. That could rip the euro apart.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:35:07 PM EST

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