The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
I think TBG is close to the mark when he argues that the Conservatives have abdicated far too many of the concepts of good governance to be truly capable of piloting this process to a safe port. Even if May tries, she will find herself forced to choose between the good of the country or holding the Tory party together. There are far too many within the leave tendency who believe in the cleansing effects of "creative destruction" who will veto the very compromises necessary to ensure safety. Even then, the choice of rock or hard place may seem luxurious compared to those the UK will face over the next few years.
We would be mad to invoke A50 at all. But if we must, which we do because the very authority of Parliament would be brought into question if we didn't, then I'm sure that, whatever the rules say and the powers that be demand, there will be talks about talks and memoranda of understanding. However, the UK doesn't possess the negotiating appratus to deal with the legal complexities of trade deals in the 21st century. The EU has done all that for us for 40 years and the expertise has withered. So, all those memoranda will fade as well.
So, everything will go to WTO basic. Except, probably, we will swallow TTiP whole because our polticians will need to have a trade deal of some kind with a major country to prove that we can. And TTiP is practically ready for signature tomorrow. All we need is to be utterly stupid........oh wait.
ps Small war. If Trump is elected, we will have a small war sometime between 20th Jan and 1st Feb, when Russia annexes the Baltic states.
If not, well let's be honest, the ME and Turkey are a little rats nest that won't improve anytime soon. Greece and or Bulgaria may find natiness spilling over.
Plus the financial instability in Italy is a contagion that the EU cannot cope with under current rules. That could rip the euro apart.
keep to the Fen Causeway
by Migeru - Dec 7 112 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 10 37 comments
by Oui - Dec 8 32 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 4 25 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 2 39 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Nov 27 74 comments
by Oui - Dec 1 5 comments
by Oui - Dec 4 2 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 1037 comments
by Oui - Dec 832 comments
by Migeru - Dec 7112 comments
by Oui - Dec 7
by Oui - Dec 42 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 425 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Dec 239 comments
by Oui - Dec 15 comments
by gmoke - Nov 283 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Nov 2774 comments
by fjallstrom - Nov 269 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Nov 2619 comments
by Oui - Nov 267 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Nov 2555 comments
by Oui - Nov 222 comments
by Oui - Nov 21
by Migeru - Nov 1744 comments
by Oui - Nov 17
by Oui - Nov 152 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Nov 14148 comments