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The spirit behind article 50 was that it was never to be used, thus it's useless.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 06:41:45 AM EST
No, it's very useful for the EU, because it defines the process on terms disadvantageous to anyone wishing to leave.  Without Article 50 there could be years of wrangling about how a member can or can not leave which would create massive uncertainty and disadvantage for all.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 09:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's still going to be years of wrangling about how a member can leave: Article 50 isn't fit for purpose.

Our dear leaders, at every level, have cocked this up utterly.

The UK government have no idea what Brexit means, have no mandate for any solution, all of which are awful, none of them seem to understand how the EU works and have ended up having to try to do something with a glorified, badly designed opinion poll that came to a unsatisfactorily close conclusion. The main opposition party decided that blowing its own foot off was a suitable response to the greatest political crisis in the UK for some time.

The EU crowd reacted with utter incompetence, demonstrating they hadn't been paying proper attention to what had been going on and making bellicose statements when they should have shut-up and "respected a member states constitutional process" and bloody well quietly schemed for a good outcome.

Meanwhile the markets are pricing in a low probability of Brexit ever happening, which will probably increase the economic shock if it actually does.

And we're still on a path to war in Europe within a generation.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 09:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Once Article 50 is triggered the UK is out after two years regardless of the outcome of any negotiations.  After that it is just a case of the EU negotiating a trade deal with the UK as it would with any third party. Failing that you have WTO rules and Tariffs which are generally not all that punitive but which will have a damaging overall effect on trade and growth, but far more for the UK (and Ireland) than for the EU as a whole.  

The whole episode could also act as a cautionary tale for any member who wants to diss everyone else, and actually strengthen the EU27. The loss of the UK's neo-liberal influence could actually re-invigorate the "social market", dirisgiste, and ordo-liberal tendencies within the EU resulting in more EU level state interventions, greater fiscal transfers, and more social solidarity and cohesion across the EU as a whole.

The EU elite needed a wake-up call in any case, and the UK may have given the EU some belated service by providing it. Throughout the Brexit debate in the UK there was never any positive mention of what the UK could give to the EU.  It was always a case of not getting enough in return.  That has been the dominant narrative ever since Thatcher negotiated the famous rebate.  It would be poetic justice if the UK lost that rebate in any calculation of the contributions due in return for access to the Single Market.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 10:54:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Once Article 50 is triggered

"Once AI is ready ..."

"When we have commercial nuclear fusion ... "

I note that the assumed and approved EU position has become win-lose rather than win-win, which is rather depressingly stupid.

I find the idea of Brexit stupid and depressing and and symptom of the EU's failures. Meanwhile it's become an occasion for EU nationalism and "kick the Brits!"

How I hate nationalism.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:19:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Article 50 is not triggered, there is no Brexit, and no need for us to have this discussion.  The whole episode will become little more than an unpleasantness within one member state, to be sorted out within that member state, by whatever means they see fit, in accordance with their constitution. Moreover, a member state whose influence within the EU has nearly always been retrogressive and whose influence may now, thankfully, either be changed, or at least much reduced...

That isn't schadenfreude or EU nationalism, it simply hoping for a better future for all the people of the EU, or at least those who wish to remain part of it.  As for the UK, I wish them all the best too.  I just think they have made a serious mistake...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:36:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love people's certainty on these matters.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm being factual. Referenda are advisory in the UK. They do not have the force of law.  A government can ignore the result - although it would probably be slaughtered at the next election.

Theresa May will probably let the process grind on to an unsatisfactory conclusion and then call an election or referendum on the outcome of the negotiations - all the while praising the efforts of her negotiators and blaming EU intransigence.  Yes, this is speculation.  YMMV.  Predicting war is easy, but doesn't make it any less likely.  I appreciate your criticisms, but perhaps you would like, some day, to give a positive view on something.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit without article 50 is also possible.

So is some sort of face-saving operation for the UK (which would, if it was anti-immigrant, fit nicely into the agenda of a lot of EU leaders).

A positive view? Maybe after we have a nice little war people will be moderately sensible for a generation or two. How's that?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 12:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So your idea for making a positive contribution here is to praise the moderating effects of war?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 01:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Once Article 50 is triggered, any referendum will have to be between a bad deal and no deal (i.e., hard Brexit), not between a bad Brexit deal and the EU status quo.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was going to respond to your suggestion that this whole episode will led to a new European war, but that part of your comment seems to have disappeared.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:40:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's in the previous comment. And this is just part of the general drift in that direction.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 11:44:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Lose-lose' is the most likely outcome. It would help if more realized that fact.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 29th, 2016 at 02:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not like the EU could do much to avoid lose-lose once the UK chose Brexit.

So far, the EU has won a bit. The foul little agreement Cameron extracted from the European Council in February is null and void. And good riddance to that.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Theresa May does not trigger Article 50 she may well have both a Tory party revolt and an English popular revolt in her hands. Presumably the Tory party conference in the Autumn will clear things up. There should be no obstacle to triggering Article 50 between October and December.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 1st, 2016 at 01:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the assumed and approved EU position has become win-lose

How could it be otherwise? There is no win-win solution to this, either the UK or the EU will come out defeated to some degree of this process. There is no path  leading simultaneously to a gentle exit and a deepening of the Union.

If the UK never triggers Article 50, then the EU wins. And perhaps the UK loses the least...

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2016 at 07:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK doesn't "lose" by staying in. Certain political forces in the UK do.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 2nd, 2016 at 09:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And we're still on a path to war in Europe within a generation.

This is new (for me)? Who against whom? Is Russia involved? Will there be nukes?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Jul 30th, 2016 at 07:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will refreshments be served?  😁

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 31st, 2016 at 10:01:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most likely candidates are civil war in Greece, civil war in Spain and war between Hungary and weak neighbour with an Hungarian minority.

But this can't be news to you, you read it years ago (and commented) right here: http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2013/3/4/42525/06144

by fjallstrom on Sun Jul 31st, 2016 at 06:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Greece ... how IS Greece doing these days? What's life like for the average Greek?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Jul 31st, 2016 at 11:31:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You did say Spain.
British warships must be sent to Gibraltar to "protect it from Spain" during Brexit negotiations, a former Ministry of Defence special adviser has said.

Luke Coffey, director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, argued the step was needed as part of measures to fend off Madrid's bid for joint sovereignty as discussions with the European Union continue.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Aug 4th, 2016 at 07:55:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, gunboat diplomacy. That's so cuuuuute.

So very 19th century, which is where most ideas from the Centre for Policy Studies belong

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 4th, 2016 at 12:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I suppose that has been the dominant mode of the UK's relationship with "Europe" for the past 1000 years.  The 45 year period of EU membership - 1973-2018 - may come to be seen as a strange interlude of cooperation with Europe in the years to come...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Aug 4th, 2016 at 01:38:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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