Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Good grief Frank, take a chill pill. I think the Irish Times is getting a bit hysterical.

It's all very well for IT to warn that a former Cabinet Minister and journalist are screaming for Hammond to be tried for treason, but when it's revealed that the people involved are Nadine Dorries (MP-Batshit cray-zee) and Nigel Lawson, ex-Chancellor, climate change denier and long term resident in the South of France, we're not exactly talking about mainstream opinion.

Yes, you're right to say that there is no majority in the Commons for "No deal" and May couldn't bring that to the Commons for a vote because she'd lose. And that would triger an election, at which point all bets would be off cos the negotiations would have to start again with a Labour govt that might just say "fuck it, the UK can't afford to leave".

And it's noticeable that the rabid leavers break down into 2 camps;-
1) wealthy tories who know that, come hell and high water, they'll be alright Jack, so pull the ladder up.

2)the left behind, the ones vividly described Giles Fraser.

Blakenall Heath seethed with the anger of the unheard. And that anger found its way into my bones. It wasn't just about the poverty. It was deeper than that. As the months went by, I began to get some sense of what it felt like when nobody listened to or cared in the slightest about what you said. It felt like no one gave a shit. Every now and again the place would show up on some list of crap towns for posh people to snigger at. Other than that, you weren't noticed.
A remain campaigner told me about a doorstep encounter he had on a bombsite of a council estate in the Midlands. "You have a lot to lose financially if we leave the EU," he explained, rationally.

"Oh, yes," she gestured to her run-down surroundings, sarcastically. "I could lose all of this?"

Of course, we should remember that he's a keen brexiter, so he's going to lean that way. Nevertheless, what he paints is picture of why Labour are caught a dilemma with their EU sypathies. They can't really afford to offend these people who would otherwise vote tory for brexit. I would still contend there are the people who are mostly the left behind of the neoliberal economic catastrophe of the last 40 years, that a Corbyn govt will hopefully roll back.

But he may have to betray them first and they may never forgive him for saving them.

But he cannot get elected unless it is with at least the acceptance of people above.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 11:59:54 AM EST
Chris Johns is not some wacko leftwinger or hard line remainer:
Chris Johns

Chris Johns was most recently Chief Investment Officer for global fundamental equities, State Street Global Advisers (SSgA). Previously he was CEO of Bank of Ireland Asset Management until the sale of that business to SSgA. He has worked in financial services, mostly asset management and investment banking, since April Fool's day 1986. Prior to that he was an economist, working in the UK Treasury and the National Institute of Economic & Social Research in London. He also taught economics in London and Cambridge Universities.

During the period 2002 - 2012 he was an appointed member of the Welsh Assmbly Government's Economic Research Advisory panel. (He grew up in Cardiff).

He wrote the columns 'London Briefing' and 'Serious Money' for this newspaper over the period 2002 - 2006.

I think you can take it it that he is pretty much in touch with City thinking, and perhaps big business thinking more generally.  And if what he says is their opinion also, you can be sure that contingency plans for a hard Brexit are rapidly being finalized and implemented. This is not just an academic debate... a hard Brexit is happening as we speak.  What is happening in the negotiations in Brussels is little more than window dressing: why negotiate seriously with someone who can't deliver on a deal anyway?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 02:19:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well yea but no but yea.

I have no doubt that in the upper echelons of the City they have to put plans in place to deal with "no deal", ie default to WTO. But I think that they're already planning to skedaddle anyway; parasites have to feed and they've grown so fat over the years that they're not likely to appreciate the slim pickings soon to be on offer from tory-brexit. However, invoking the concerns of non-entities like Dorries and demonstrated serial failures like Lawson detracts from any argument rather than adding weight.

I still don't think "no deal" is what is going to happen. I think the government would fall if it tried. All along I have suspected that brexit must be attempted by the Tories alone and only the Tories can stop it. The more the 3 stooges make a mess of negotiations, the more the sensible wing (yes, there is one) of the party will take fright. How it will finally play out I don't know, maybe I'm hoping for a miracle. But I cannot believe that MPs will vote for such blatant self harm.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 02:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A reply I wrote to Oui at Booman seems apt in this context:
I have always expected another election once the outcome of the negotiations is known - so disastrous will they seem compared to the status quo. Ireland, for one, is unlikely to accept any deal involving a hard border the DUP position will make unavoidable.  

However the problem is that any such outcome is unlikely to be clear until the very last minute before March 2019 meaning that an extension of the A50 period would be required to facilitate further negotiations with any new government that emerges.  

As any such extension requires the unanimous approval of the Council, it is anyone's guess whether the EU will agree to this. Many will be so fed up with the whole process by that stage they will just want it to end to enable the EU to move on to more urgent business like Eurozone reform.

Given that Corbyn's politics is so out of sympathy with the increasingly rigtward leaning EU body politic, it is unlikely an agreement with the new government will be achievable even if an extension of the negotiating period is agreed.

Increasingly, a good outcome for anyone requires the equivalent of a political miracle, and I don't count a belief in Unicorns is indicative OF A GOOD OUTCOME.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:20:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The above was written in something of a hurry in an internet cafe as my battery was running out, but you get the gist. There are headbangers on the EU side as well, and EU politics, in general is not moving in a good direction if it is a rational and mutually optimal solution you are looking for.

If you can't see the current UK Parliament approving any likely negotiation outcome - even if one is eventually agreed - the only possible outcomes are a hard "no deal" Brexit or a general election to elect a government that can agree a deal. If the new government is Corbyn led and without the DUP, at least a solution to the Irish border issue becomes possible, but I doubt most EU leaders (leading centre right and right wing governments) would cut him much slack on all other issues. They screwed Tsipras for less.

It gives me no pleasure to say this, and it is totally against Ireland's national interest, but I can see the UK and EU spiralling out of control in different antagonistic directions post a no deal Brexit creating problems which will take the best part of a generation to fix. The political dynamics are all wrong and what was fringe headbanger stuff a few years ago is become mainstream now.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I don't believe the Brexiteers have a clue how much fire they are playing with, and how difficult it will be to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 03:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on that I can only agree

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 04:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Once you eliminate the politically impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable or insane, must be the truth." - Not Sherlock Holmes
by fjallstrom on Mon Oct 16th, 2017 at 05:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I still don't think "no deal" is what is going to happen." - You damn well better be right on this for the sake of everyone in the UK. But, in any case, May will likely go down in history as the worst PM ever in terms of the consequences of what her government's policies and actions produced. And, unlike Thatcher, this is likely to be the judgement of most of the political spectrum. Talk about sacrificing substance for the sake of appearance!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 17th, 2017 at 04:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series