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Somehow, laws, contracts, and the rule of law seem to be of no concern when the imminent glorious Brexit future is discussed. Why?

I hear the current scenario is:

  • December's council finds progress insufficient leading to postponement till March.
  • Businesses start implementing contingency plans and making loud noise (or, in Brexit language, traitors make economic defections).
  • Medium-term economic outlook craters.
  • Public opinion turns somewhat but more importantly parliamentary opinion turns and the 'mutineers' finally step up and further delay/defeat government's Brexit bills.
  • Government crisis, cabinet resignations...?
  • Brexit timeout?

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 05:27:51 AM EST
A reasonable scenario, but what would a time-out look like?

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 11:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Article 50 extension? Probable even without a mess like this. But then the process could devolve into a long-term game of push-pull chicken.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 07:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given an A50 extension requires unanimous agreement, would at least some Council members not demand a price for their agreement?  For instance, Ireland would demand a written guarantee of no "hard border" controls within Ireland. Others might demand a down payment on the severance payment - something that would be v. difficult for the UK government to agree. Personally I think this is unlikely without a general election and change of government in the UK, so it would require a Commons confidence defeat, rather than just a few cabinet resignations.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 21st, 2017 at 10:11:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An extension also means the UK keeps contributing to the budget. It might not be such a hard sell after all.

Still, the UK is clearly creating a lot of ways for things to go really wrong.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 21st, 2017 at 10:18:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the face of A50 expiring in a different or (even more) chaotic UK political landscape I suspect there'd be no cost imposed. The cost of chaotic departure is too high for everyone. In the face of exactly the same UK gov letting the clock run out because they couldn't agree among the themselves the situation would be different.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 21st, 2017 at 11:33:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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