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But that doesn't have to mean a complete breakdown in negotiations and my central expectations is that the negotiations will limp along until early 2019.
My only problem with this scenario is that - barring a change of government - I don't see the political environment becoming more conducive to an agreement in the interim.
At that stage - early 2019 - I see desperate negotiators trying to cobble together a limited agreement on a few "must have" topics like air travel together with an agreement to revisit other topics later as part of some "comprehensive trade agreement" which everyone is unsure will ever happen.
The agreement may be so minimalist that UK negotiators will have difficulty justifying any financial settlement in return which, again, makes any agreement difficult if not impossible. Some issues, like the Irish Border, may be sidetracked for agreement "later" possibly as part of a separate bilateral deal subject to EU blessing.
Eventually, and probably at the last possible moment, "a deal" will come before the House of Commons and EP amid a general lack of enthusiasm and opposition from both hard Brexiteers and Remainers.
I doubt a majority will be possible at that stage and so we will probably have a general election in the UK and exasperation in EU27. Labour will probably win amid great confusion as to what will now happen as some on the EU side will be very reluctant to start a new negotiation with a new government.
But if Labour stick to their position of wanting to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market, a whole lot of things (including the Irish border) will suddenly become much simpler.
This thing could end not with a bang but with a whimper. After a lot of sturm und drang the UK will simply succeed in disempowering itself within the EU and that will suit a lot of people just fine.
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 17 3 comments
by gmoke - Aug 7 16 comments
by Oui - Aug 9 6 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 3 53 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 27 81 comments
by IdiotSavant - Jul 20 19 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 25 43 comments
by Oui - Jul 26 10 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 173 comments
by Oui - Aug 12
by Oui - Aug 115 comments
by Oui - Aug 10
by Oui - Aug 96 comments
by gmoke - Aug 716 comments
by Oui - Aug 3
by Frank Schnittger - Aug 353 comments
by Oui - Jul 3111 comments
by Oui - Jul 311 comment
by Cat - Jul 292 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2781 comments
by Oui - Jul 2610 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2543 comments
by Oui - Jul 232 comments
by Bernard - Jul 2234 comments
by Oui - Jul 226 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jul 2116 comments
by Oui - Jul 2017 comments