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Prognosis: HMS Britannia holds a steady course to sail onto the rocks
She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The likelihood of defections from any Government majority is generally over-hyped and I wouldn't put a lot of money on betting on a general election in 2019. The instinct for self-preservation tends to trump any qualms of principle. However many Tory MPs have something of a revolving door with key business interests horrified at the prospect of a hard Brexit.
So in this case I would put the probability of May losing a confidence vote by 2019 at greater than 50%. However a new Tory leader like Boris might seek to avoid a general election - in the knowledge of almost certain defeat - by simply delaying things long enough for Brexit to happen by default.
At that point dissident MPs will simply have to suck it hope and hope a better post-Brexit deal - a Canada plus trade deal can be negotiated. I can't see the EU placing a high priority on the plus part, however. Not after Brexit. Any deal will have to be heavily weighted in EU27's favour for it to achieve the required unanimous approval.
Index of Frank's Diaries
It essentially said that a "Plus deal" including services will be difficult. Because allegedly modern FTAs have a clause in it, saying that if one side later on offers a better deal to another country, the older FTA should be open for an "upgrade" too.
The author basically concluded that the EU would like to avoid that scenario.
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