Nevertheless, if no substantial Brexit deal is negotiated and the cliff edge looms, it wouldn't take many remainers to defect to pass a vote of no confidence, cause an election, and result in a Labour victory with a mandate to remain in the single market and customs union. Similarly, it wouldn't take many Brexiteers to defect to cause a similar outcome if any Brexit deal is not to their liking.

The likelihood of defections from any Government majority is generally over-hyped and I wouldn't put a lot of money on betting on a general election in 2019. The instinct for self-preservation tends to trump any qualms of principle. However many Tory MPs have something of a revolving door with key business interests horrified at the prospect of a hard Brexit.

So in this case I would put the probability of May losing a confidence vote by 2019 at greater than 50%. However a new Tory leader like Boris might seek to avoid a general election - in the knowledge of almost certain defeat - by simply delaying things long enough for Brexit to happen by default.

At that point dissident MPs will simply have to suck it hope and hope a better post-Brexit deal - a Canada plus trade deal can be negotiated. I can't see the EU placing a high priority on the plus part, however. Not after Brexit. Any deal will have to be heavily weighted in EU27's favour for it to achieve the required unanimous approval.

Index of Frank's Diaries