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Nevertheless, if no substantial Brexit deal is negotiated and the cliff edge looms, it wouldn't take many remainers to defect to pass a vote of no confidence, cause an election, and result in a Labour victory with a mandate to remain in the single market and customs union. Similarly, it wouldn't take many Brexiteers to defect to cause a similar outcome if any Brexit deal is not to their liking.

The likelihood of defections from any Government majority is generally over-hyped and I wouldn't put a lot of money on betting on a general election in 2019. The instinct for self-preservation tends to trump any qualms of principle. However many Tory MPs have something of a revolving door with key business interests horrified at the prospect of a hard Brexit.

So in this case I would put the probability of May losing a confidence vote by 2019 at greater than 50%. However a new Tory leader like Boris might seek to avoid a general election - in the knowledge of almost certain defeat - by simply delaying things long enough for Brexit to happen by default.

At that point dissident MPs will simply have to suck it hope and hope a better post-Brexit deal - a Canada plus trade deal can be negotiated. I can't see the EU placing a high priority on the plus part, however. Not after Brexit. Any deal will have to be heavily weighted in EU27's favour for it to achieve the required unanimous approval.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Nov 19th, 2017 at 11:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I seem to remember a Daily Telegraph article a few weeks ago?

It essentially said that a "Plus deal" including services will be difficult. Because allegedly modern FTAs have a clause in it, saying that if one side later on offers a better deal to another country, the older FTA should be open for an "upgrade" too.

The author basically concluded that the EU would like to avoid that scenario.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Mon Nov 20th, 2017 at 02:39:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why give London a privileged position of financial services within the EU if you later have to give the same benefits to all other countries with which you have or want to conclude a trade deal? There is a way to provide the UK with a "bespoke" deal better than any other: it's called the Single Market and Customs Union.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Nov 21st, 2017 at 10:23:28 AM EST
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