Objectively, what progress have the Brussels talks made since the EU Council meeting in October decided there was "insufficient progress"? The UK government appears to be holding some concessions in reserve to be delivered just ahead of the summit and to be spun as major concessions.

Whether they will be seen as too little, too late, is anyone's guess at this stage.

Index of Frank's Diaries

Once the second phase of negotiations on trade and transition begins, it is the larger countries and economic players who will be calling the shots and nobody is under any illusions that Irish interests and concerns will have much influence.

The Irish government is fighting hard not to become isolated in Europe on this so it will be interesting to see if the UK diplomatic offensive has been effective in disrupting the common front the EU27 have heretofore shown.

But rather than actually progressing the negotiations in Brussels the UK has been focused on a wider diplomatic offensive with May, Johnson and Davies spending a lot of time schmoozing EU national leaders and emphasising their common bilateral interests.

In footballing terms this is known as playing the man rather than the ball. I await the success or otherwise of this strategy with interest... Merkel and Macron remain key but may have other fish to fry...

Index of Frank's Diaries

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Two years is the maximum period for negotiations unless extended by unanimous vote. There is no minimum. The UK could write a letter to the EU Council seeking to withdraw on 1/1/2018 and if the Council agreed to this, that agreement could constitute a withdrawal agreement within the meaning of A. 50.3. Article 50 is not prescriptive as to what a withdrawal agreement must contain. It could be little more than a glorified mutual Auf Wiedersehen.

But I agree, this scenario is somewhat far fetched. I raise it only to illustrate how rapidly the current unstable situation could spin out of control with mounting acrimony on both sides. Both sides are still shouting past each other with little sign of any gathering consensus - even on the UK side alone. If the united EU27 front crumbles, all hell will break lose. The stakes are high and getting higher with every ratcheting up of the rhetoric.

Index of Frank's Diaries

How UK gov has conducted itself in fact may hardly be construed as a negotiation of equals since Cameron's conspicuous resignation, following several years petitioning for further "reform" of UK privileges, in fact conceded by EU institutions.

Rather UK gov immediately assumed a position to coerce that same economic and political trubute from the EU-27 upon presentation of A50 and Ireland for ransom. That "frame" of malice aforethought --not plausible customs cooperation or border locations, not relative trade balances or agricultural "interests"-- clarified for me anticipated EU strategy to extricate the UK from the union when UK first issued its "Future Partnership" papers.

To borrow a premise:

Political economy cannot be divorced from social and historical contexts

So. Turn about the blessed cheek: What protocol guides hostage negotiations, hmm? And what "technologies" are available to EU negotiators?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

But that doesn't have to mean a complete breakdown in negotiations and my central expectations is that the negotiations will limp along until early 2019.

My only problem with this scenario is that - barring a change of government - I don't see the political environment becoming more conducive to an agreement in the interim.

At that stage - early 2019 - I see desperate negotiators trying to cobble together a limited agreement on a few "must have" topics like air travel together with an agreement to revisit other topics later as part of some "comprehensive trade agreement" which everyone is unsure will ever happen.

The agreement may be so minimalist that UK negotiators will have difficulty justifying any financial settlement in return which, again, makes any agreement difficult if not impossible. Some issues, like the Irish Border, may be sidetracked for agreement "later" possibly as part of a separate bilateral deal subject to EU blessing.

Eventually, and probably at the last possible moment, "a deal" will come before the House of Commons and EP amid a general lack of enthusiasm and opposition from both hard Brexiteers and Remainers.

I doubt a majority will be possible at that stage and so we will probably have a general election in the UK and exasperation in EU27. Labour will probably win amid great confusion as to what will now happen as some on the EU side will be very reluctant to start a new negotiation with a new government.

But if Labour stick to their position of wanting to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market, a whole lot of things (including the Irish border) will suddenly become much simpler.

This thing could end not with a bang but with a whimper. After a lot of sturm und drang the UK will simply succeed in disempowering itself within the EU and that will suit a lot of people just fine.

Index of Frank's Diaries

And I don't really see any option working: minority government (lack of tradition), grand coalition (spd has ruled it out) or new elections (polls show the same landscape as in the election).

Don't really see the position of the FDP improving either. Are they walking out in the hope of being called back for a better offer??

From Vote Leave inquiry: what is Electoral Commission investigating?
To Electoral Commission launches inquiry into leave campaign funding

By Friday perhaps you all will be choking on meddling and interference by foreign agents which will invalidate referendum returns in whole or in part.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

"Obviously, we have worked very hard to have a peaceful Northern Ireland and it would be very wrong to suggest that leaving the European Union would in some way threaten that peace. Because of course it's the people of Northern Ireland who have brought about the peace. Others have supported us and we fully recognise that," she told The Irish Times.

is a trait of a certain personality, or mental, disorder: In this case asserting cooperation while obstructing cooperation within domestic and between international governments' agencies to resolve incompatible business goals. The formula of all lies is to deny true facts, thereby representing false reality. All lies are unequivocal in these facts. That statement renders the patent, true disrepair of litigation, the conflict, between the parties all the more appalling. RES IPSA LOQUITOR: There is no peace, because there is no agreement.

When one encounter persons such as this, escalation of conflict which they seek is inevitable. The logical course of action to preclude further harm is to remove oneself from conflict, the root of which nurtured by the liar, until such time the afflicted are whole and amenable to mutually constructive relations. Gorgias

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.