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Checking the polls today, Melenchon is increasing and closing in on Fillon. But I guess, even if he overcomes Fillon, that will just make the media drop Fillon when they are talking about the frontrunners.

I see that there is even some second round polling for Melenchon. He beats LePen (68-32) and Fillon (63-37), but loses against Macron (43-57).

How is the campaigns looking in France?

by fjallstrom on Fri Apr 7th, 2017 at 10:58:48 AM EST
This is an interesting case of a non-transitive choice. Melenchon trouces Le Pen by a much higher margin than Macron does, but then he is easily beaten by Macron...

So (except if the samples are different, but even then that would be so far above the margin of error that you could infer the phenomenon holds in the population) quite a lot of people would prefer Melenchon to LePen, prefer LePen to Macron but still prefer Macron to Melenchon...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri Apr 7th, 2017 at 01:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In this - Scan-resesarch 23-27 march - that I quoted for Melenchon-LePen and Melenchon-Macron, they had Macron-LePen at 70-30. And slightly different numbers of respondents. So I think essentially you have the left+middle voting against LePen and middle+right voting for Macron over Melenchon.

Pretty small poll, with 600 something respondents.

A new and larger poll is up on Wikipedia now, Kantar Sofres 5-7 april, with 1515 respondents. They have:
Macron-LePen 61-39
Melenchon-LePen 57-43
Macron-Melenchon 53-47

So same winners, but tighter races.

by fjallstrom on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 02:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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