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Melenchon seems to be doing rather well and Hamon continues his collapse. On the first glance it looks like Hamon should drop out. Can he even do that? And how many of his voters would go over to Macron instead of voting for the commie?
And would that make a right wing restoration in the PS more or less likely?
by generic on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 07:37:12 AM EST
Considering how Hamons fall and Melenchons rise seems to mirror each other (not perfectly, though), I think part of it is the voters who could go for either are shifting to Melenchon and will probably continue to do so if he looks like the more probable left candidate to get to the second round. So at this rate, it may not matter if Hamon drops out, the voters who could vote for a commie does so either way.

Right now, Melenchon and Fillon are at 18-19 percent and LePen and Macron at 23-24 percent. Not an unbridgeable gap with two weeks left.

What will happen to the PS is an interesting question. Who will be the party leader for PS in the legislative elections if Hamon does this poorly?

by fjallstrom on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 02:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why I'm no longer sure that Hamon dropping out in favour of left unity would achieve anything. I read the Schulz surge in Germany as people still hoping that there is a happy end without drastic change. I suppose you can vote for the PS if want everything to stay the same but better. But you probably wouldn't vote for the far left.
by generic on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 02:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, the perfect transferability of votes between Hamon and Mélenchon -- while trading places, for a total of around 25-27%, illustrates the discipline of the core of left-wing electors.  I believe that if Hamon formally dropped out, the transfer would be close to perfect.

However, I also believe that Mélenchon's dynamic is starting to widen. A lot of centre-left "soft supporters" of Macron are starting to get very queasy about him cosying up to the right, and I think many will transfer directly to Mélenchon. I think we have probably passed Peak Macron, but don't quote me.

It's now a four-way horse race, and it's clear that Méluche has by far the biggest "reservoir" of potential voters...


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two more thoughts :
  • Fillon is profoundly unfashionable, in an impressive number of different ways, and will probably do considerably better than his polling on election day. Anecdotal evidence from right-wing voters suggest that they will hold their noses and vote for him for want of a viable alternative. Dupont-Aignan, the pseudo-neo-gaullist, will get close to zero votes, and a lot will come home from Macron.
  • This might lead to my preferred second-round scenario : Fillon vs Mélenchon. A shoo-in, and a victory for the Losers against the Winners, sociologically speaking.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This might lead to my preferred second-round scenario : Fillon vs Mélenchon.
That would assume quite a number of voters dropping Le Pen in favor of either Fillon or Mélenchon, to push her back to third place; difficult to believe at this point.
by Bernard on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mélenchon seemed to be the only one with lots of campaign posters up in Paris yesterday.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For sure, he and Le Pen have got the best ground game. Paris is definitely not Le Pen territory. But I see the same thing in Lyon, I'm not seeing a big Le Pen presence.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is hardly surprising: the FN vote is stronger in the small cities and suburbs rather than in metropolitan centers. The maps presented by Hervé le Bras, a demographer, are quite interesting.
by Bernard on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 07:57:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not close to French electorate sentiment, but with numbers this close - four candidates in the 18-24% range - it seems that all bets are off and any combination of the four is still possible: it all depends on which candidates are better at getting out their vote and attracting support from the minor candidates.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems likely that Le Pen and Melenchon will be better at getting out their vote and Melenchon still has a reservoir of Hamon voters to draw on. If Trump/Brexit has taught us anything, it is that the "extreme centre" excites no one except the media, so Macron could be in trouble even if he seems like the lowest common denominator choice.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the "extreme centre" got 3 million more votes in the US. They may not have been particularly enthusiastic votes (mine certainly wasn't) but they still voted.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:11:08 PM EST
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Same in The Netherlands, to a certain extent. Continentals do not always favor the extremes...
by Bernard on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was in what was effectively a two horse run off election. No one is denying that Macron would win in the second round if he gets there.  The problem is will he make the top two if voters still have 10 other candidates to choose from, and specifically if Le Pen, Fillon and Melenchon are all better at mobilising their core support. Macron doesn't appear to have much of a "core" either in organisational, sociological or ideological terms...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:27:34 PM EST
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