The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Right now, Melenchon and Fillon are at 18-19 percent and LePen and Macron at 23-24 percent. Not an unbridgeable gap with two weeks left.
What will happen to the PS is an interesting question. Who will be the party leader for PS in the legislative elections if Hamon does this poorly?
However, I also believe that Mélenchon's dynamic is starting to widen. A lot of centre-left "soft supporters" of Macron are starting to get very queasy about him cosying up to the right, and I think many will transfer directly to Mélenchon. I think we have probably passed Peak Macron, but don't quote me.
It's now a four-way horse race, and it's clear that Méluche has by far the biggest "reservoir" of potential voters...
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II
This might lead to my preferred second-round scenario : Fillon vs Mélenchon.
Looking at it from the outside, it seems likely that Le Pen and Melenchon will be better at getting out their vote and Melenchon still has a reservoir of Hamon voters to draw on. If Trump/Brexit has taught us anything, it is that the "extreme centre" excites no one except the media, so Macron could be in trouble even if he seems like the lowest common denominator choice.
Index of Frank's Diaries
by ATinNM - Oct 19 27 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 19 91 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 11 30 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 8 126 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 6 159 comments
by IdiotSavant - Sep 28 6 comments
by IdiotSavant - Sep 28 10 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 1 35 comments
by ARGeezer - Oct 22
by ATinNM - Oct 1927 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 1991 comments
by gmoke - Oct 15
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 1130 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 8126 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 6159 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Oct 135 comments
by IdiotSavant - Sep 286 comments
by IdiotSavant - Sep 2810 comments