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No, the perfect transferability of votes between Hamon and Mélenchon -- while trading places, for a total of around 25-27%, illustrates the discipline of the core of left-wing electors.  I believe that if Hamon formally dropped out, the transfer would be close to perfect.

However, I also believe that Mélenchon's dynamic is starting to widen. A lot of centre-left "soft supporters" of Macron are starting to get very queasy about him cosying up to the right, and I think many will transfer directly to Mélenchon. I think we have probably passed Peak Macron, but don't quote me.

It's now a four-way horse race, and it's clear that Méluche has by far the biggest "reservoir" of potential voters...


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two more thoughts :
  • Fillon is profoundly unfashionable, in an impressive number of different ways, and will probably do considerably better than his polling on election day. Anecdotal evidence from right-wing voters suggest that they will hold their noses and vote for him for want of a viable alternative. Dupont-Aignan, the pseudo-neo-gaullist, will get close to zero votes, and a lot will come home from Macron.
  • This might lead to my preferred second-round scenario : Fillon vs Mélenchon. A shoo-in, and a victory for the Losers against the Winners, sociologically speaking.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This might lead to my preferred second-round scenario : Fillon vs Mélenchon.
That would assume quite a number of voters dropping Le Pen in favor of either Fillon or Mélenchon, to push her back to third place; difficult to believe at this point.
by Bernard on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:12:10 PM EST
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Mélenchon seemed to be the only one with lots of campaign posters up in Paris yesterday.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:12:20 PM EST
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For sure, he and Le Pen have got the best ground game. Paris is definitely not Le Pen territory. But I see the same thing in Lyon, I'm not seeing a big Le Pen presence.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 06:55:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is hardly surprising: the FN vote is stronger in the small cities and suburbs rather than in metropolitan centers. The maps presented by Hervé le Bras, a demographer, are quite interesting.
by Bernard on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 07:57:06 PM EST
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