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No, the perfect transferability of votes between Hamon and Mélenchon -- while trading places, for a total of around 25-27%, illustrates the discipline of the core of left-wing electors.  I believe that if Hamon formally dropped out, the transfer would be close to perfect.

However, I also believe that Mélenchon's dynamic is starting to widen. A lot of centre-left "soft supporters" of Macron are starting to get very queasy about him cosying up to the right, and I think many will transfer directly to Mélenchon. I think we have probably passed Peak Macron, but don't quote me.

It's now a four-way horse race, and it's clear that Méluche has by far the biggest "reservoir" of potential voters...


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:02:17 PM EST
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