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I'm not close to French electorate sentiment, but with numbers this close - four candidates in the 18-24% range - it seems that all bets are off and any combination of the four is still possible: it all depends on which candidates are better at getting out their vote and attracting support from the minor candidates.

Looking at it from the outside, it seems likely that Le Pen and Melenchon will be better at getting out their vote and Melenchon still has a reservoir of Hamon voters to draw on. If Trump/Brexit has taught us anything, it is that the "extreme centre" excites no one except the media, so Macron could be in trouble even if he seems like the lowest common denominator choice.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 05:59:52 PM EST
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