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These Are the Elections That Will Decide Europe's Fate - FPIF
Most polls indicate a Le Pen vs. Macron runoff, with Macron coming out on top, but that may be dangerous thinking. Macron's support is soft. Only about 50 percent of those who say they intend to vote for him are "certain" of their vote. In comparison, 80 percent of Le Pen's voters are "certain" they will vote for her.

There are, as well, some disturbing polling indications for the second round. According to the IFOP poll, some 38 percent of Fillon's supporters say they'll jump to Le Pen -- that's 2 million voters -- along with 7 percent of Hamon voters and 11 percent of Melenchon backers.

What may be the most disturbing number, however, is that 45 percent of Melenchon voters say they won't vote at all if Macron is the anti-Le Pen candidate in the second round. Some 26 percent of Fillon's voters and 21 percent of Hamon's voters would similarly abstain.

Le Pen will need at least 15 million votes to win, and the Front has never won more than 6 million nationally. But if turnout is low, Le Pen's strongly motivated voters could put her into the Elysee Palace. In this way, France most resembles Britain prior to the Brexit vote.

by Bernard on Tue Mar 28th, 2017 at 08:12:11 PM EST

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