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The facts remains: all the polls have been telling us this is going to be a Le Pen/Macron run-off, and this for a month and a half now.
Then again, what the polls predicted and what came out on election day has been shown to sometimes quite different (Brexit & Trump being the prime examples), so caveat emptor more than ever.
One thing I Really wanted to highlight is that this election is really quite different from the previous, well-known and well formatted, PS vs. LR (or PS vs. UMP) of the past decades, even though one might argue (as Le Pen does) that Macron is sort of a Hollande plant.
As trite as it may seem, we have never seen this before since the onset of the Fifth Republic, which may explain the relatively high number of undecided voters.
It is precisely the high numbers of undecided who could yet prove the polls wrong. Are there any indications how they lean? Will they vote in large numbers or at all? Are they ex-PS/LR voters dissatisfied with their parties or candidates who will eventually hold their noses and vote for their traditional parties/candidates anyway?
Are there any indications if there will be a high or a low turnout? I suspect a low turnout would help Le Pen and perhaps Melenchon most, and those with a better party organisation. Is the general mood for change or the status quo? Is there a big urban/rural divide? Is Immigration as big an issue as elsewhere? How will the terrorist atrocities influence the vote? Who is posing as the law and order candidate?
How much anti-EU/Euro sentiment is there? Is Brexit an issue, and if so, how would that effect the vote? I would expect a Pro-EU candidate like Macron to have made Brexit an issue, blame all the ills of the EU on the English and promise reform once they are gone. How credible would this be as a political strategy?
Index of Frank's Diaries
by Luis de Sousa - Feb 28 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 23 12 comments
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by Frank Schnittger - Feb 20 16 comments
by gmoke - Feb 14 2 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 19 14 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 15 23 comments
by gmoke - Mar 1
by IdiotSavant - Feb 28
by Luis de Sousa - Feb 281 comment
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by Oui - Feb 25
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2312 comments
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by Frank Schnittger - Feb 2016 comments
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by Frank Schnittger - Feb 1914 comments
by Oui - Feb 197 comments
by Oui - Feb 18
by Oui - Feb 1777 comments
by Oui - Feb 168 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 1523 comments
by gmoke - Feb 142 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 1413 comments
by Oui - Feb 145 comments
by Oui - Feb 1245 comments
by Oui - Feb 775 comments