It is precisely the high numbers of undecided who could yet prove the polls wrong. Are there any indications how they lean? Will they vote in large numbers or at all?  Are they ex-PS/LR voters dissatisfied with their parties or candidates who will eventually hold their noses and vote for their traditional parties/candidates anyway?

Are there any indications if there will be a high or a low turnout?  I suspect a low turnout would help Le Pen and perhaps Melenchon most, and those with a better party organisation. Is the general mood for change or the status quo?  Is there a big urban/rural divide? Is Immigration as big an issue as elsewhere? How will the terrorist atrocities influence the vote?  Who is posing as the law and order candidate?

How much anti-EU/Euro sentiment is there? Is Brexit an issue, and if so, how would that effect the vote? I would expect a Pro-EU candidate like Macron to have made Brexit an issue, blame all the ills of the EU on the English and promise reform once they are gone. How credible would this be as a political strategy?

Index of Frank's Diaries