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Two anecdata points :
  • I had lunch yesterday with four old friends, all left/far left voters, all certain to vote today and not one of them sure of which candidate they were going to vote for.
  • I've been to the polling booth twice so far, at 10.45 and 12, and both times the queue was so long I decided to come back later. I've never seen that. I will go back about 2pm, hoping for a lunchtime lull. I will check national estimates of voting rates, but it looks like a blowout.

In sum : all bets are off.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 10:39:04 AM EST
A high turnout would benefit Macron?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 11:02:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
benefits democracy...
by Bjinse on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 12:46:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My impression (backed by polling data) is that those favouring Macron and Le Pen have been the most highly motivated and sure of their vote; late-deciding voters may be hesitating between the mainstream left (or right) candidate and the minor ones. That would (in my dreams at least) tend to favour Mélenchon and Fillon.
The "useful vote" phenomenon can work both ways on the left : in favour of Mélenchon, at the expense of Hamon and the minor candidates, or in favour of Macron. My personal propaganda line is that this second option is a "second round" position, that no-one on the left should vote for Macron in the first round... We'll see.

It seems actually that turnout is fairly average :


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 23rd, 2017 at 01:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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