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Candidate  Vote  Poll average (based on graphic at top of diary)
Macron      23.9      24.0
Le Pen       21.7      22.3
Fillon         20.0      19.7
Mélenchon 19.2      18.9

All in all, a very good performance by the pollsters with Fillon and Mélenchon slightly out-performing their polls and Le Pen underperforming by the largest margin.

The second round may be more challenging to predict.  With a 25% advantage in the opinion polls at present, Macron may have difficulty motivating his supporters to vote again, and left wing voters could abstain en masse. Or will Le Pen voters become demotivated by the size of Macron's lead?

It will be interesting to see whether he maintains that lead in the polls in the run up to the second round.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 24th, 2017 at 09:54:10 AM EST

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