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I'm suspecting that polls are having systematic problems that are not reflected accurately in the probabilities. Apart from the problems of predicting elections (and I would include last UK parliament election in the list) I have also noticed in my work that people increasingly don't answer their phones when you call from a number they don't know and people in comment sections during the US election writing about how if you answered once, pollsters kept calling (without being asked to be in a poll).

These are annecdotes, but could point towards inexpensive and accurate polling over the phone being a thing of the past. Door to door would still probably work, but I don't think anyone does that anymore. Or to put it another way, as a society we traded inexpensive and accurate polling for phone salespeople once caller ID became a standard feature.

by fjallstrom on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 03:26:23 PM EST

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