Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I'm suspecting that polls are having systematic problems that are not reflected accurately in the probabilities. Apart from the problems of predicting elections (and I would include last UK parliament election in the list) I have also noticed in my work that people increasingly don't answer their phones when you call from a number they don't know and people in comment sections during the US election writing about how if you answered once, pollsters kept calling (without being asked to be in a poll).

These are annecdotes, but could point towards inexpensive and accurate polling over the phone being a thing of the past. Door to door would still probably work, but I don't think anyone does that anymore. Or to put it another way, as a society we traded inexpensive and accurate polling for phone salespeople once caller ID became a standard feature.

by fjallstrom on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 03:26:23 PM EST

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