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I started spreadsheeting on Monday. Taking the results from my own district, and comparing with 2012, I derived some trivial formulae to explain the shifts. So, for example, Macron equals Bayrou plus three-eighths of Hollande plus three-sixteenths of Sarkozy; Mélonchon equals himself plus three-eighths of Hollande plus half of Eva Joly.

This gives a model that extrapolates fairly well to the regional and national levels (with the exception of Le Pen, who actually shrank considerably in my district). Next step : pull up the numbers from the 2012 legislatives, and make projections for the département.

The Lyon region is a special case : it is the prototype of Macronia. But here's what we get :
Of the fourteen legislative districts of the Rhône, there were eight LR and six PS elected in 2012. According to my projection, based on the presidential numbers, we could get two LR, eight En Marche, and four Insoumis.

This is taking no account of personalities, nor of possible alliances. It assumes, for example, that the two PS MPs who declared for Macron before the presidential election, will be returned as EM (or their districts will). And in all probability, one PS will survive (Najat Belkacem, one of the few ministers to emerge with her reputation more or less intact).

I have really no idea what legislative results might look like elsewhere. Frankly, I don't thing anyone else does either.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 07:27:44 AM EST

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