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Macron has tried to position himself in the centre of the political spectrum, as distant as possible from his mentor Hollande.  That doesn't prevent the right from regarding him as a Socialist, and the left regarding him as a neo-liberal, marketista reformer.

But assuming En Marche doesn't secure a majority in the legislative elections, does he look left or right to achieve a majority? A lot will depend on the arithmetic: does En Marche+PS give an adequate but not excessive majority, or will he look for Gaullist support?

Who will be the logical leader of the opposition - Le Pen, Sarkozy/Fillon/Juppe, or Mélenchon?  Will PS make something of a come back, and if so under which leader?  Hamon's 6% doesn't provide much of a base to work from, and may not be enough to provide En Marche with a working majority.

Assuming Le Pen gets c. 40% of the vote, will she be able to translate this into a large or even near majority parliamentary block in the legislature, or is much of this a personal vote?  

If she becomes the effective leader of the opposition, will this marginalise the Gaullists regardless of who they chose as their new leader?

It seems to me that the most likely configuration post the Presidential and Legislative elections is of a President Macron with Le Pen as the effective leader of the opposition in the legislature and with everyone else struggling for relevance, either as a Macron ally or as a third force in parliament.

Could this spell the end of the Gaullists? Can PS recover or will they be marginalised by Mélenchon?  Either way, it seems to me that the political landscape will be much changed, with many established players out in the cold.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 01:48:33 PM EST
The FN will not get a significant number of deputes.

Parliament ALSO follows a two rounds electoral system. Even with 40% (which she won't get) in the second round, that does in no way translate in even being present in most second rounds of the legislatives.
And present in the second round, in most cases, will mean being trounced, except where there will be 3 candidates. But expect a strong pressure for one of them to drop in such cases.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 01:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure about that. I'll have to do some simulations. Remember, 12.5% of enrolled electors gets you into the second round. There will be plenty of three-way and four-way second rounds (a left candidate will not stand down for a Macronite, and vice versa), and nobody will be ready to stand down to prevent an FN win at district level. This is perfectly explicit in what LR leaders are saying to the press. My pick is that this may well be the election where the "cordon sanitaire" busts, and, in certain regions, LR and FN candidates go for mutual desistment.

My next simulation will be the Loire department, which I also know intimately. Off the top of my head, it wouldn't surprise me if FN got one or two MPs out of six.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Christ on a bike. Using Le Monde's simulator, the Loire will plausibly return four FN MPs (with one Insoumis and one Macronite, from Saint Etienne).

Then the local factors come into play. The FN candidates have been around forever and are known to be morons, etc.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a handy simulator from Le Monde!

It lets you play with abstention rates and calculates who gets to stay in the second round of the legislatives. This will save me some tedious data acquisition and spreadsheeting!


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's the correct link for the simulator

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 06:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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