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Macron has tried to position himself in the centre of the political spectrum, as distant as possible from his mentor Hollande.  That doesn't prevent the right from regarding him as a Socialist, and the left regarding him as a neo-liberal, marketista reformer.

But assuming En Marche doesn't secure a majority in the legislative elections, does he look left or right to achieve a majority? A lot will depend on the arithmetic: does En Marche+PS give an adequate but not excessive majority, or will he look for Gaullist support?

Who will be the logical leader of the opposition - Le Pen, Sarkozy/Fillon/Juppe, or Mélenchon?  Will PS make something of a come back, and if so under which leader?  Hamon's 6% doesn't provide much of a base to work from, and may not be enough to provide En Marche with a working majority.

Assuming Le Pen gets c. 40% of the vote, will she be able to translate this into a large or even near majority parliamentary block in the legislature, or is much of this a personal vote?  

If she becomes the effective leader of the opposition, will this marginalise the Gaullists regardless of who they chose as their new leader?

It seems to me that the most likely configuration post the Presidential and Legislative elections is of a President Macron with Le Pen as the effective leader of the opposition in the legislature and with everyone else struggling for relevance, either as a Macron ally or as a third force in parliament.

Could this spell the end of the Gaullists? Can PS recover or will they be marginalised by Mélenchon?  Either way, it seems to me that the political landscape will be much changed, with many established players out in the cold.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 01:48:33 PM EST

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