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All fair points, but it is difficult to know whether such problems bias the sample towards any particular candidate. For the moment, an aggregation of such polls is the best indicator we have of how the election is trending, but my confidence in any predictions based on polls in a tight race is low. Thus any combination of two from the four leading candidates is still possible, and the likelihood of a Macron/Le Pen match-up is only marginally higher than the other match-ups.

Fladem has an interesting chart of average polling error up in a comment on this diary on Booman.

The largest error recorded in the sample period is 3.36%, which would not be enough to lift Fillon or Mélenchon above Macron or Le Pen. So it would be a bit of an upset if either made the second round at this stage.  But as you say, the problems with telephone polling may have been getting gradually worse...

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 04:33:29 PM EST
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