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The main problem I see with polls these days is that folk forget about the margin of error. In Portugal, for instance, many polls are presented with intervals instead of absolute values - as they always should.

Take for instance the Odoxa poll published yesterday, where the margin of error is given at 2.5. The results therefore were:

Macron: 22.5 - 27.5
Le Pen: 20.0 - 25.0
Mélenchon: 17.0 - 22.0
Filion: 17.0 - 22.0

Looking at the polls this way one clearly sees what exactly they having been telling us this past two weeks: anything can happen.

The only thing that seems mildly certain is Macron on the second round. In various others last minute polls one also finds that his lower bond is higher than the higher bounds for Mélenchon and Fillon. But not by much.

In essence, Sunday is to provide the hell of an election night.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 05:28:23 PM EST
That is, at least, a major improvement on Irish newspapers which often headline a 1% shift in the polls when the moe is 3%...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 06:39:05 PM EST
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