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The FN will not get a significant number of deputes.

Parliament ALSO follows a two rounds electoral system. Even with 40% (which she won't get) in the second round, that does in no way translate in even being present in most second rounds of the legislatives.
And present in the second round, in most cases, will mean being trounced, except where there will be 3 candidates. But expect a strong pressure for one of them to drop in such cases.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 01:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure about that. I'll have to do some simulations. Remember, 12.5% of enrolled electors gets you into the second round. There will be plenty of three-way and four-way second rounds (a left candidate will not stand down for a Macronite, and vice versa), and nobody will be ready to stand down to prevent an FN win at district level. This is perfectly explicit in what LR leaders are saying to the press. My pick is that this may well be the election where the "cordon sanitaire" busts, and, in certain regions, LR and FN candidates go for mutual desistment.

My next simulation will be the Loire department, which I also know intimately. Off the top of my head, it wouldn't surprise me if FN got one or two MPs out of six.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Christ on a bike. Using Le Monde's simulator, the Loire will plausibly return four FN MPs (with one Insoumis and one Macronite, from Saint Etienne).

Then the local factors come into play. The FN candidates have been around forever and are known to be morons, etc.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a handy simulator from Le Monde!

It lets you play with abstention rates and calculates who gets to stay in the second round of the legislatives. This will save me some tedious data acquisition and spreadsheeting!


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's the correct link for the simulator

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 06:56:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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