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I'm not so sure about that. I'll have to do some simulations. Remember, 12.5% of enrolled electors gets you into the second round. There will be plenty of three-way and four-way second rounds (a left candidate will not stand down for a Macronite, and vice versa), and nobody will be ready to stand down to prevent an FN win at district level. This is perfectly explicit in what LR leaders are saying to the press. My pick is that this may well be the election where the "cordon sanitaire" busts, and, in certain regions, LR and FN candidates go for mutual desistment.

My next simulation will be the Loire department, which I also know intimately. Off the top of my head, it wouldn't surprise me if FN got one or two MPs out of six.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Apr 27th, 2017 at 05:04:41 PM EST
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