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One way to assess the pollsters' work would be to check how they did during the last presidential election in 2012:

During the last week before the first round on 22 April, Hollande was polled at 27-28% (he got 28.6% of the vote), Sarkozy 26-28% with CSA at 24% (he got 27.2% of the vote), Le Pen was at 14-16% during the first half of April but last week polls showed her at 17% (and she ended up with 17.9% of the vote). The largest difference was with Mélenchon who was polled at 13-15% and ended up with only 11.1% of the vote; Bayrou was also polled at 9-11% and received 9.1% of the vote.

All in all, it looks like the polls didn't do too badly, catching the rise of Le Pen in the last week but less so the fall of Mélenchon, and the differences between the polls vs. first round results were around 1% for the first three candidates.

by Bernard on Sat Apr 22nd, 2017 at 06:04:46 PM EST
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