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Last night. Oh the horror, the horror. I expected it to be bad, but the alternative was a match between Ajax Amsterdam and Olympique Lyonnais, and I had a bad feeling about that too (4-1 as it turned out).

It was shouty as hell. Macron, as I had feared, was pretty awful. Yet won convincingly. Le Pen landed a few good punches in the opening minutes, but lost it about halfway through :


 ... and never recovered.

In all logic, the whole thing will push up abstemption by 10% or so. But Le Pen is surely sunk. Not only for this electoral cycle. She may well be in difficulty as head of her party. That's how bad it was. Her niece Marion as probable successor, when the dust dies down.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 07:11:04 AM EST
A bit early to do any Kremlinology at he different parties: FN, PS or LR. Bu the knifes are definitely sharpened and it will turn real ugly as soon as Sunday night.

The next, and most important step, as I've argued is the legislative elections next month: this is where the majority that will effectively govern France will be decided, the president having relatively little power in front of the parliament, in the end, Gaullist purity notwithstanding.

In the last three such exercises - legislative elections immediately following a presidential election, the French voters have always given the newly elected (or re-elected for Chirac 2002) a parliamentary majority. This preliminary poll from Les Echos show a similar trend:

  • En Marche, Macron's own organization, may get 249-286 seats (absolute majority is 290)
  • LR about 200-210 seats
  • FN 15-20 seats
  • Front de Gauche (Mélenchon's party) 6 to 8 seats
  • PS may be down to 20-43 seats

This is only a first poll, and not very reliable at this point: a lot will happen between now and June 11. Sarkozy has pushed François Baroin, a "junior" minister in his cabinet back in 2007-2012 (he is 51 now) to head the LR campaign with the obvious goal to have a LR majority ruling the country.
by Bernard on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 05:51:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So has Macron destroyed the PS, or have they only themselves to blame for such a debacle?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 05:58:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mostly Hollande, Valls, Le Drian and the "social-liberal" crowd, who antagonized the left electorate by steering the government to a neolib course, away from the platform they campaigned for in 2012.

What really precipitated the crisis was the voters decision to nominate a candidate with a real left wing program - Hamon - instead of the anointed Valls during last January's primaries. This gave the third-wayers the excuse to jump ship and openly support Macron, effectively sinking their own party.

by Bernard on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 08:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find it hard to see how the PS get out of the hole they have dug themselves. There is a ferocious battle going on within the upper ranks of the party, and the outcome may well be that they pitch for an alliance with Macron up front, before the legislatives.

If they do that, while keeping the logo, there is nowhere for the decent party members (and MPs) to go but left.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 09:08:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not a poll. That's a model, based on a shitload of arbitrary assumptions.

For example : all  the blocs represented in the presidential election will present a candidate in every district, so : one far left, one Mélenchon, one PS/EELV.
Also, they give an arbitrary boost to sitting candidates. This is not a good election for sitting candidates.

To be fair, all they can do is model. Neither the candidates nor even the forces in presence are clear yet. But the result will look nothing like that.

With this model they get only 52 to 78 left candidates surviving the first round, and only 34 to 51 elected.
Those numbers are frankly ridiculous, bearing in mind that .  The party structures will sort something out, to avoid a complete murder/suicide. Even if they don't, which is not impossible, left-wing voters are smarter than that. They will choose the locally-legitimate candidate, as they did nationally in the presidential, which is why Mélenchon got close to qualifying for the second round.

However, En Marche has the huge advantage of being in the middle. In any hypothetical four-way first round, it's likely (depending on the abstemtion rate) that two or three candidates will qualify for the second round. Assuming that EM is one of them, and that the LR or left candidate is eliminated, they are pretty much guaranteed to get the benefit of the eliminated candidate's votes in the second round.

So it would not be surprising if EM got something close to a majority. But it would be very surprising if the left were to be so completely wiped. Especially with the FN set to take a nosedive in the second round of the presidentials.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 09:06:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially with the FN set to take a nosedive in the second round of the presidentials.
Going from c. 20% of the vote to c. 40% in the second round is hardly a nosedive?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 10:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was anticipating, after that debate. In the last couple of days, according to the polls, the split has gone from 60/40 to 63/37. I anticipate that she'll finish lower than that on Sunday, perhaps 35%.

Then we can get on with hating on Macron.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 05:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a given.  But you can also elect a legislature which forces him to look left for a governing majority and leaves the Gaullists to compete with the FN on the right.  Who would be the lead candidate for Prime Minister in a EN Marche!/PS coalition Government?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 05:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PS would not achieve much if it is not on Hamon's terms - Valls may well be to the right of Juppe. And then the left would be blamed for the failure of right-wing wing policies once again.
If it were Mélenchon, of course, that would be something. But very unlikely.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 08:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I put on my conspirational hat, I would say it is a model intentionally benefitting En Marche. By launching that as a "poll" before candidates are presented and any actual polls are made, they position En Marche as the presumptive winner.

Same as the Macron "surge" in January, that was really a model if Bayrou didn't run, positioned Macron as frontrunner.

by fjallstrom on Fri May 5th, 2017 at 03:14:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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