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A bit early to do any Kremlinology at he different parties: FN, PS or LR. Bu the knifes are definitely sharpened and it will turn real ugly as soon as Sunday night.

The next, and most important step, as I've argued is the legislative elections next month: this is where the majority that will effectively govern France will be decided, the president having relatively little power in front of the parliament, in the end, Gaullist purity notwithstanding.

In the last three such exercises - legislative elections immediately following a presidential election, the French voters have always given the newly elected (or re-elected for Chirac 2002) a parliamentary majority. This preliminary poll from Les Echos show a similar trend:

  • En Marche, Macron's own organization, may get 249-286 seats (absolute majority is 290)
  • LR about 200-210 seats
  • FN 15-20 seats
  • Front de Gauche (Mélenchon's party) 6 to 8 seats
  • PS may be down to 20-43 seats

This is only a first poll, and not very reliable at this point: a lot will happen between now and June 11. Sarkozy has pushed François Baroin, a "junior" minister in his cabinet back in 2007-2012 (he is 51 now) to head the LR campaign with the obvious goal to have a LR majority ruling the country.
by Bernard on Thu May 4th, 2017 at 05:51:05 PM EST
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