Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
This may not come as much of a consolation to you, but my sense is that the outcome of the negotiations (a hard Brexit with or without a deal) is now becoming more and more likely and almost irrespective of the quality of the negotiating team fielded by the UK.

This is because the political needs of the EU members - to maintain solidarity and keep their own hard right at bay trumps any concerns they might have of the economic damage a hard Brexit might do the EU.

The UK simply doesn't have many cards to play - goods and services that cannot be sourced elsewhere - or even stuff like financial services where the EU really needs to develop its own capabilities if it wants to be taken seriously as a world economic power.

It also seems inconceivable that the EU would allow Euro clearing operations to remain in the UK or allow UK based banks and funds carry out the majority of EU financial operations. The same goes for the aerospace, armaments and IT industries.

So Brexit represents a once off opportunity to broaden the base of EU economies at the expense of the UK, and there isn't a huge amount any UK negotiating team can do about it. The big problem is that the UK doesn't even seem to see this coming...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 13th, 2017 at 06:33:16 PM EST
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A hell of a price to pay for having the blind and fools for political leaders.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun May 14th, 2017 at 05:32:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, that's my impression of the default deal. My worry is that our "negotiators" will find ways of making things even worse than necessary

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 14th, 2017 at 08:17:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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