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My wife has put French radio on in the other room. Macron is giving his speech.

From a distance, it sounds downright scary. I do (I do) realise that the words are very different. But the tone I hear sounds just like Nuremberg. Those big accelerandos, screamed sentences followed by acclaim from the crowd. Again and again.

I don't think Macron was emotionally stable before, with the exaltation of the election I could all too easily see him totally unhinged.

I will be glad if he does put a lot of PR in our parliamentary elections. But for the moment, France now has for president the guru of a sect created by the establishment media.

Yes, I know, it is better that tonight's alternative. But the whole game has been to plant the idea before the first round that you had to vote for him because otherwise the second round would lead to a LePen win. Of course it would never have come close, but using the scare was how to manipulate the whole thing, and I know all too many people who did vote for him in the first round while hating him, precisely because they were scared of this bogeyman scenario...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun May 7th, 2017 at 08:53:41 PM EST
He's all things to all people. He's no more himself when he's screaming at a crowd (Hitler on ecstasy?) than when he's fawning on Médiapart journalists, or pandering to a right-wing audience.

Maybe, now he's the boss, we'll discover who he really is. Or maybe he's nobody, and everything will depend on who has his ear.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun May 7th, 2017 at 10:12:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, the mainstream press is celebrating the victory of openness over closedness, as well as the fact that you can win an election on a pro-EU platform. Here's Wolfgang Münchau looking ahead
It is a common notion, but wrong, that France is an ailing economy. France and Germany have enjoyed almost identical levels of labour productivity for the past 50 years. Both countries have achieved a similar economic performance since the introduction of the euro -- with Germany doing a little worse than France before the financial crisis, and a little better since. France is not like Italy -- which has failed to generate much productivity growth since entering the eurozone. This is why the case for eurozone exit, as made by Marine Le Pen, was not as strong in France, as it will be in Italy.

France, however, has been breaching the EU's fiscal rules. It has debts of 100 per cent of gross domestic product, while Germany is on course to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 per cent by the end of this decade -- the official, but much ignored, debt ceiling in the eurozone. If Mr Macron has any chance to persuade Berlin of the virtue of a common eurozone budget and a common finance minister, as set out in his manifesto, he will need to demonstrate that he is serious about fulfilling the treaty rules. Fortunately for him, the timing is good. The eurozone economy is in a mild cyclical upswing. There is no better time to consolidate but now. His programme set out a moderately strong fiscal squeeze of €60bn over five years. At an average annual rate of €12bn, this is between 0.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent of last year's economic output.

Germany is happy that Mr Macron won the election but virtually nobody in Berlin is talking about his idea of a common eurozone budget and finance minister. The SPD is more flexible than the CDU but, unlike Mr Macron, is not campaigning in favour of common fiscal policies either. Berlin will soon discover that Mr Macron is demanding changes that the German political establishment has explicitly ruled out. At least one side will end up eating its words -- and both will if they settle on a compromise. (Financial Times)



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 08:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Münchau:
It is a common notion, but wrong, that France is an ailing economy.

Haven't we heard this one before?
by Bernard on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 09:02:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's more about the consistently high rate of youth unemployment or precarious employment. Low paying jobs that somehow require a useless university degree. The dissipation of hope - the younger generation will have it worse than the elders.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 9th, 2017 at 11:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But then again I'm an outsider who doesn't know anything. Demographically France is doing so much better than Germany (somehow hope doesn't disappear in that area) which should result in  a bigger economy long-term.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue May 9th, 2017 at 11:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the French leaders have to do is get their heads out of Germany's ass and adopt pro growth monetary policies - and let it be known that they will do this with or without the cooperation of Brussels and while using or not using the Euro. Germany would come around. There is no EU without France and Germany.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed May 10th, 2017 at 05:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, yes, but Melenchon and Hamon were crucified for suggesting something on these lines.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed May 10th, 2017 at 07:42:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But has anyone been so heretical as to actually poll the French electorate on how they would respond to a candidate legitimately from the left to center left taking such a position. And did the soldiers who crucified Melenchon and Hamon representatives of the press,, the think tanks and the neo-liberal establishment?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 11th, 2017 at 12:14:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least one side will end up eating its words -- and both will if they settle on a compromise.

Au contraire, most people who bother reading election manifestos will expect something of a compromise: the question is, how much influence can Macron ultimately wield with Germany and the Eurozone as a whole?

He can always makes his commitment to fiscal consolidation dependent on progress on a Eurozone budget/finance Minister. The chair of the Eurogroup could fulfil that role, and, to appease German concerns, the budget doesn't have to huge to begin with.  

Spending it to help lift Greece out of a debt death spiral,to assist refugee accommodation throughout Europe, and to counter act the worst effects of Brexit would be politically popular.  

It could be funded out of a Euro-wide "solidarity tax", the proceeds from UK exit or market access payments, or external tariffs in the absence of the latter.  A Tobin tax on Euro currency transactions would be another option.

Macron would have to build a Eurozone consensus to overcome German and fiscal conservative opposition.  That would be the real test of his leadership skills.  Hollande, to my knowledge, never worked particularly hard to build a Euro wide consensus on anything.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 10:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Macron would have to build a Eurozone consensus to overcome German and fiscal conservative opposition.

Isn't Schauble's future financial minister's role uncertain?

And if he's retiring, could he take Padoan with him, please?  

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue May 9th, 2017 at 07:51:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect Schultz might demand the Finance portfolio for himself in any future CDU/SDP coalition.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 9th, 2017 at 12:13:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely we remember Sarkozy during his campaign meetings in 2007? Same style, plus the insults, of course.

If you are worried at the prospect of an emotionally unstable and totally unhinged president, you can can be thankful you're not a US citizen.

by Bernard on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 08:57:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am. Oh, how I am!

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon May 8th, 2017 at 09:04:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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