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I haven't read any of the allegations, so bear this in mind when I say:

  1. The hackers have probably left this too late.  There isn't time for news organisations to verify any of the allegations, so Macron can get away with just denouncing the hack.

  2. France isn't the USA.  There is still a greater respect for privacy.

  3. It looks all too similar to what happened to Hillary.  So it is easy to frame the story as black propaganda.

  4. In the case of Hillary, the hacked material fed into and reinforced an already existing narrative about her.  This isn't the case with Macron.

  5. The Greatest risk for Macron was probably a failure of left voters to turn out to vote for him.  This will help galvanise them.

  6. This does nothing for Le Pen's image.

  7. The greatest longer term danger for Macron is after the elections, if some of the allegations turn out to be proven. That is not a problem fro the elections however.

  8. Last week I was expect a 60-40% result for Macron.  Given the outcome of the debate and this hack, I think it will be more like 65-35%.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat May 6th, 2017 at 09:48:48 AM EST
It's no secret that the Alt-right has been hard at work trying to push Le Pen.

Having failed at passing themselves for French, they have resorted to create "memes" for the French "fachosphere" to retweet.

This will certainly agitate the true believers, but Le Pen needs much, much more than her core supporters to pull it off.

Because of the blackout period in the French media, relatively few people heard of that, let alone have taken a look at the allegations.

If anything, this may just backfire: this is where the French legendary skepticism will come in handy. If there's one thing French people truly hate, it's being taken for suckers.

by Bernard on Sat May 6th, 2017 at 03:46:17 PM EST
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If there's one thing French people truly hate, it's being taken for suckers.

Americans have cornered the market on that.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat May 6th, 2017 at 10:36:06 PM EST
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I have seen (unsubstantiated) reports on the material which claim that documents directly related to the bank account and hidden assets issues are in the docs.

Showing up Macron as a tax-evading fraudulent bankster does play into narratives on the left against him.

by Zwackus on Sun May 7th, 2017 at 12:13:25 AM EST
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